{
 "generated": "2026-07-03T02:57:15.856Z",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "source": "https://crudesignal.io/data",
 "rows": [
  {
   "week": "W14",
   "slug": "2026-w14-crude-signal",
   "call": "Expect another sharp move upward in oil if the mid-April supply cliff hits",
   "type": "supply-policy",
   "horizon": "2wk",
   "condition": null,
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "UNFALSIFIABLE",
   "evidence": "No discrete cliff event was ever declared; no price level or date to test."
  },
  {
   "week": "W14",
   "slug": "2026-w14-crude-signal",
   "call": "A diplomatic breakthrough would likely cause a rapid reversal in oil",
   "type": "diplomatic",
   "horizon": "open",
   "condition": null,
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "UNFALSIFIABLE",
   "evidence": "Directionally trivial; no threshold or date."
  },
  {
   "week": "W15",
   "slug": "2026-w15-crude-signal",
   "call": "If the ceasefire fails Tuesday night, expect oil to surge toward Goldman's $150 scenario",
   "type": "diplomatic",
   "horizon": "days",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "Apr 8 deadline passed without a deal; Brent FELL to $94.75 (Apr 8 close). Oil never approached $150 at any point in the crisis."
  },
  {
   "week": "W15",
   "slug": "2026-w15-crude-signal",
   "call": "Relayed Goldman $115 base case, $150-200 if blockade extends to June",
   "type": "supply-policy",
   "horizon": "to June",
   "condition": null,
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "UNFALSIFIABLE",
   "evidence": "Third-party scenario, not an owned call. Brent in June 2026: ~$94. The $150-200 band never came close."
  },
  {
   "week": "W16",
   "slug": "2026-w16-crude-signal",
   "call": "If Iran retaliates against the US Navy, expect a rapid move toward $150",
   "type": "kinetic-geo",
   "horizon": "open",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "Multiple kinetic US-Iran exchanges occurred (W20, W23, W24); Brent peaked at $118.03 (Apr 29) and sat ~$94 by W24. $150 never printed."
  },
  {
   "week": "W17",
   "slug": "2026-w17-crude-signal",
   "call": "If Tehran returns to Pakistan talks within the week, Brent holds $90-100",
   "type": "diplomatic",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "RIGHT",
   "evidence": "Graded by W18 scorecard: Brent held the called range intraweek, then moved to $101 through it."
  },
  {
   "week": "W17",
   "slug": "2026-w17-crude-signal",
   "call": "If Iranian forces retaliate against a US-flagged vessel, the floor breaks down fast; Goldman's $120 reactivates",
   "type": "kinetic-geo",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "no-fire",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "UNRESOLVED",
   "evidence": "No US-flagged retaliation that week; Iran hit two non-US vessels. Condition unmet."
  },
  {
   "week": "W17",
   "slug": "2026-w17-crude-signal",
   "call": "If DXY slips below 97 and gold tags $4,900, the structural thesis hardens",
   "type": "fed-rates",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "no-fire",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "UNRESOLVED",
   "evidence": "Per W18 scorecard: DXY held 98.0-98.8. Neither trigger fired."
  },
  {
   "week": "W18",
   "slug": "2026-w18-crude-signal",
   "call": "Powell cites Iran/energy CPI risk -> DXY through 99, gold breaks $4,650",
   "type": "macro-data",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "RIGHT",
   "evidence": "Per W19 scorecard: Powell cited energy; gold cracked $4,650 to $4,545; DXY tagged 98.92."
  },
  {
   "week": "W18",
   "slug": "2026-w18-crude-signal",
   "call": "IRGC seizes US-flagged vessel -> Brent $115+ in one session",
   "type": "kinetic-geo",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "no-fire",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "PARTIAL",
   "evidence": "No US seizure, but Brent hit $118.03 (Apr 29) anyway on UAE/OPEC exit. Right idea, wrong trigger."
  },
  {
   "week": "W18",
   "slug": "2026-w18-crude-signal",
   "call": "Pakistan restart confirmed -> Brent retests the $90 floor",
   "type": "diplomatic",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "Pakistan opened corridors but Brent went the opposite way, to $118."
  },
  {
   "week": "W18",
   "slug": "2026-w18-crude-signal",
   "call": "Core PCE >3.0% YoY -> 2y yield +10bps",
   "type": "macro-data",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "RIGHT",
   "evidence": "Core PCE 3.2%; 2y +exactly 10bps to 3.94%. Clean call per W19 scorecard."
  },
  {
   "week": "W18",
   "slug": "2026-w18-crude-signal",
   "call": "CLARITY markup advances -> ETH/SOL re-rate vs BTC",
   "type": "crypto",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "no-fire",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "UNRESOLVED",
   "evidence": "Markup did not advance; BTC outperformed. W19 marks it Open."
  },
  {
   "week": "W19",
   "slug": "2026-w19-crude-signal",
   "call": "Saudi cuts -> Brent $110+, run at $120",
   "type": "supply-policy",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "no-fire",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "Saudi did not cut; Brent ripped on conflict then cracked to ~$101 (May 8 close $101.29). Mechanism wrong."
  },
  {
   "week": "W19",
   "slug": "2026-w19-crude-signal",
   "call": "Saudi releases capacity -> Brent breaks $105, tests $100",
   "type": "supply-policy",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "no-fire",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "PARTIAL",
   "evidence": "Brent broke $105 (May 8 close $101.29) but Saudi never released capacity. Right outcome, wrong cause."
  },
  {
   "week": "W19",
   "slug": "2026-w19-crude-signal",
   "call": "Project Freedom succeeds -> WCI freight eases 2-3%",
   "type": "kinetic-geo",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "no-fire",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "Project Freedom paused after 48h; WCI rose +3% to $2,286."
  },
  {
   "week": "W19",
   "slug": "2026-w19-crude-signal",
   "call": "Fed speakers more hawkish -> DXY clears 99",
   "type": "fed-rates",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "Speakers were hawkish; DXY fell to a 10-week low of 97.84 (May 8). Hawkish-Fed-lifts-dollar mechanism broken."
  },
  {
   "week": "W19",
   "slug": "2026-w19-crude-signal",
   "call": "Trump accepts Iran proposal -> Brent gaps -$15, tests $98",
   "type": "diplomatic",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "no-fire",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "Trump rejected the proposal ('TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE'); trigger never fired. Graded WRONG in the W20 scorecard."
  },
  {
   "week": "W20",
   "slug": "2026-w20-crude-signal",
   "call": "CPI hot (headline >3.5% or core 3.4%+) -> 2y to 3.95%+, DXY 98.50, gold -$50",
   "type": "macro-data",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "RIGHT",
   "evidence": "Core MoM +0.4% hot; 2y to 4.08%; DXY cleared 99; gold gave back $182. Cleanest single fire, per W21 scorecard."
  },
  {
   "week": "W20",
   "slug": "2026-w20-crude-signal",
   "call": "Project Freedom restarts / US vessel fired on -> Brent $115+ in one session",
   "type": "kinetic-geo",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "PARTIAL",
   "evidence": "MSV Haji Ali sank May 13; Brent hit $109.26 (May 15 close), not $115. Half-fired."
  },
  {
   "week": "W20",
   "slug": "2026-w20-crude-signal",
   "call": "Trump accepts modified Iran proposal -> Brent gaps to $90",
   "type": "diplomatic",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "no-fire",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "Trump dismissed it; Brent went to $109+."
  },
  {
   "week": "W20",
   "slug": "2026-w20-crude-signal",
   "call": "Warsh dovish confirmation -> DXY breaks 97",
   "type": "fed-rates",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "Warsh confirmed 54-45, but hot CPI/PPI overwhelmed; DXY cleared 99 instead."
  },
  {
   "week": "W20",
   "slug": "2026-w20-crude-signal",
   "call": "CLARITY markup advances -> ETH catches BTC/SOL within 5 sessions",
   "type": "crypto",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "Markup advanced 15-9, but crypto sold off on CPI: BTC -6%, ETH -10%, SOL -12%."
  },
  {
   "week": "W20",
   "slug": "2026-w20-crude-signal",
   "call": "SPR drained 5mb+ to sub-388 -> oil floor $100 firms",
   "type": "macro-data",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "RIGHT",
   "evidence": "SPR drew 8.6mb to ~384; WTI held >$100, peaked $105.42 (May 15)."
  },
  {
   "week": "W21",
   "slug": "2026-w21-crude-signal",
   "call": "PF Plus clears convoy with no engagement -> Brent -$5-8",
   "type": "kinetic-geo",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "no-fire",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "PARTIAL",
   "evidence": "PF Plus did not restart; Brent gave back $15 anyway on deal optimism (May 22 close $103.54). Right direction, wrong mechanism."
  },
  {
   "week": "W21",
   "slug": "2026-w21-crude-signal",
   "call": "IRGC engages convoy or US vessel -> Brent $115+",
   "type": "kinetic-geo",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "no-fire",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "No US escalation; Brent did the opposite, cracking to $97. Graded against the standing $115 template."
  },
  {
   "week": "W21",
   "slug": "2026-w21-crude-signal",
   "call": "UMich <47 or Philly/Empire miss -> DXY rolls to 98, gold $4,650",
   "type": "macro-data",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "UMich crashed to 44.8 and Philly missed huge, but DXY ROSE to 99.32 on inflation expectations. Trigger fired, wrong direction."
  },
  {
   "week": "W21",
   "slug": "2026-w21-crude-signal",
   "call": "Fed speaker reframes services-PPI sticky -> DXY tests 100",
   "type": "fed-rates",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "PARTIAL",
   "evidence": "Minutes were hawkish; DXY touched 99.32, never cleared 100. Half-fire."
  },
  {
   "week": "W21",
   "slug": "2026-w21-crude-signal",
   "call": "SPR 6mb+ draw to sub-378 -> WTI floor $100 holds",
   "type": "macro-data",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "SPR drew 10mb to <375 but WTI broke $100 down to $93 (May 22 close $96.60) on the diplomatic surprise. Right number, wrong outcome."
  },
  {
   "week": "W22",
   "slug": "2026-w22-crude-signal",
   "call": "Iran mine-clears or US suspends blockade -> Brent breaks $90 within 48h",
   "type": "diplomatic",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "no-fire",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "Neither happened; Brent tagged $91.12 Friday on no-deal + soft GDP, not on execution (May 29 close $92.05). Wrong mechanism."
  },
  {
   "week": "W22",
   "slug": "2026-w22-crude-signal",
   "call": "Israel-Hezbollah escalates or Iran rejects MoU -> Brent reclaims $105",
   "type": "kinetic-geo",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "PARTIAL",
   "evidence": "Both legs fired (Beaufort Castle May 31; talks suspended); Brent surged ~7% to $97, not $105. Right trigger, short on magnitude."
  },
  {
   "week": "W22",
   "slug": "2026-w22-crude-signal",
   "call": "New Home Sales / Durables miss -> DXY to 98.50, gold $4,600",
   "type": "macro-data",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "Home sales missed but Durables beat +7.9%; DXY held ~99, gold fell to $4,460."
  },
  {
   "week": "W22",
   "slug": "2026-w22-crude-signal",
   "call": "Core PCE +0.3% MoM or headline 2.7%+ -> DXY tests 100, gold breaks $4,500",
   "type": "macro-data",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "PARTIAL",
   "evidence": "Core softer at +0.2%, headline hot 3.8%; gold broke $4,500 (to $4,460) but DXY never tested 100. Gold leg landed, dollar leg didn't."
  },
  {
   "week": "W22",
   "slug": "2026-w22-crude-signal",
   "call": "SPR draw <5mb signals deal confidence; 6mb+ signals hedging",
   "type": "macro-data",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "RIGHT",
   "evidence": "SPR drew 9.06mb to 365; the hedging branch fired and the deal collapsed days later. Read diplomacy correctly when headlines didn't."
  },
  {
   "week": "W23",
   "slug": "2026-w23-crude-signal",
   "call": "Iran acts on closure (mines, seizures, transit to zero) -> Brent gaps through $110",
   "type": "kinetic-geo",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "no-fire",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "RIGHT",
   "evidence": "Iran never acted; no gap occurred and Brent slipped to ~$94.5 (Jun 8 close $94.24). The necessary-condition read held: no action, no gap."
  },
  {
   "week": "W23",
   "slug": "2026-w23-crude-signal",
   "call": "Macron channel reopens or ceasefire resumes -> Brent unwinds toward $88",
   "type": "diplomatic",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "no-fire",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "PARTIAL",
   "evidence": "Oil softened to the low-$90s but diplomacy stayed broken; the easing came from jobs + OPEC+ barrels. Right direction, wrong driver."
  },
  {
   "week": "W23",
   "slug": "2026-w23-crude-signal",
   "call": "US-Iran strike with US vessel hit, Gulf base casualty, or tanker sinking -> Brent $115+, risk-off",
   "type": "kinetic-geo",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "Casualty leg fired (Kuwait airport, 1 dead Jun 2; Haifa, 4 dead Jun 7); Brent FELL (Jun 5 close $93.09). The macro regime overrode the geopolitical tail."
  },
  {
   "week": "W23",
   "slug": "2026-w23-crude-signal",
   "call": "May jobs <100K or unemployment 4.4%+ -> cut path reopens, DXY rolls to 98",
   "type": "macro-data",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "no-fire",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "RIGHT",
   "evidence": "Payrolls +172K, unemployment 4.3% - the mirror image; cut path slammed shut, a hike got priced, DXY firmed to ~99.9. The framing correctly named NFP as the pivot."
  },
  {
   "week": "W23",
   "slug": "2026-w23-crude-signal",
   "call": "EIA 8mb+ SPR draw -> runway alarm goes from Q3 risk to certainty",
   "type": "macro-data",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "RIGHT",
   "evidence": "SPR down 7.9mb to 357.1mb, right at threshold; commercial crude -8mb. Runway is now a standing headline."
  },
  {
   "week": "W24",
   "slug": "2026-w24-crude-signal",
   "call": "May CPI (Wed Jun 10) hot: headline +0.4% MoM or core +0.3%+ -> hike tail goes live, DXY breaks 100",
   "type": "macro-data",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "Headline fired hot (+0.5% MoM, +4.2% YoY) but core printed soft (+0.2%). Consequences failed: DXY stalled at 99.5 with no break of 100, and gold rose toward $4,340 rather than testing $4,250. The energy-driven headline was undercut by the soft core and the Iran deal collapsing the oil input. Right on the headline, wrong on every market consequence."
  },
  {
   "week": "W24",
   "slug": "2026-w24-crude-signal",
   "call": "May CPI soft -> hike tail fades, relief rally",
   "type": "macro-data",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "PARTIAL",
   "evidence": "Core fired soft (+0.2% MoM). DXY unwound to 99.5 and gold reclaimed toward $4,400 as called, but the 'oil handed back to the strait' clause missed when the peace framework sent oil lower instead. Right on the dollar and gold, wrong on oil."
  },
  {
   "week": "W24",
   "slug": "2026-w24-crude-signal",
   "call": "Iran takes closure action -> Brent gaps",
   "type": "kinetic-geo",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "no-fire",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "VOID",
   "evidence": "Condition never fired. Iran's Jun 11 'total closure' declaration and Jun 12 drone fire (both downed) laid no new mines, seized no vessel, and transit did not newly collapse. A peace framework landed instead and Brent fell to $83. An unfired condition is void, not a miss."
  },
  {
   "week": "W24",
   "slug": "2026-w24-crude-signal",
   "call": "Pause-break fade trade",
   "type": "kinetic-geo",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "no-fire",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "VOID",
   "evidence": "Condition never fired on its terms: the direct Iran-Israel missile axis held all week, and the disabled Settebello was Palauan-flagged (a US blockade action), not a US-flagged ship hit by Iran. Void."
  },
  {
   "week": "W24",
   "slug": "2026-w24-crude-signal",
   "call": "EIA shows SPR sub-350 -> runway headline escalates",
   "type": "macro-data",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": "",
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "Condition fired exactly: the SPR drew 7.9mb to 349.2mb, under 350 as called. Consequence failed: WTI fell to ~$80 rather than holding the predicted ~$90 floor, as the peace framework made the reserve-runway math irrelevant overnight. Right on the reserve, wrong on the floor."
  },
  {
   "week": "W25",
   "slug": "2026-w25-crude-signal",
   "call": "FOMC holds 3.50-3.75% and the SEP dot plot erases the last 2026 cut (hawkish hold, no hike) -> DXY holds 99-100, 2y ~4.0-4.1%, risk grinds higher",
   "type": "fed-rates",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": 0.75,
   "grade": "PARTIAL",
   "evidence": "Condition right: the Fed held 12-0 and the median 2026 dot moved past zero cuts to imply a hike. But we under-priced the consequence. Warsh out-hawked the call: DXY broke 100 to ~100.8 (not the 99-100 band), the 2y cleared 4.19% (above ~4.0-4.1%), and equities sold off on FOMC day rather than grinding higher. Right thesis (hawkish hold, cut erased), too timid on magnitude."
  },
  {
   "week": "W25",
   "slug": "2026-w25-crude-signal",
   "call": "Brent front-month closes below $90 every session through Jun 22 (peace-premium unwind holds as the dominant regime)",
   "type": "commodity",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": 0.7,
   "grade": "RIGHT",
   "evidence": "Clean. Brent traded ~$78-81 all week and never approached $90; the peace-premium unwind held as the dominant force. Brent ~$78.6 Jun 22."
  },
  {
   "week": "W25",
   "slug": "2026-w25-crude-signal",
   "call": "Fujairah VLSFO premium over Rotterdam stays >40% AND Gulf war-risk hull premium stays >0.8% (freight decouples from the barrel)",
   "type": "freight",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": 0.85,
   "grade": "RIGHT",
   "evidence": "Our highest-conviction call, cleanest hit. Oil fell to a four-month low while Fujairah held ~82% over Rotterdam ($1,100 vs $604) and war-risk stayed 0.8-1.5% (Lloyd's+Chubb launched $200M capacity Jun 19 at current rates, not cuts). Barrel cheap, freight dear."
  },
  {
   "week": "W25",
   "slug": "2026-w25-crude-signal",
   "call": "Hormuz daily transits stay below 47, half the ~94 pre-crisis baseline (reopening stays paper-only on mine-clearing)",
   "type": "freight",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": 0.88,
   "grade": "PARTIAL",
   "evidence": "Honest split. Our pre-registered source (AIS-based PortWatch/Windward, ~20/day) held under 47, but CENTCOM's more complete military count (dark-vessel inclusive) hit 55 on Jun 20. By the named source the call holds; by the fullest count the threshold was touched. Strait still a trickle vs ~94 norm, but graded down for the ambiguity."
  },
  {
   "week": "W25",
   "slug": "2026-w25-crude-signal",
   "call": "US-Iran ceasefire holds through Jun 22: no US-Iran kinetic resumption, no formal Iranian withdrawal -> $110 closure trigger stays dead",
   "type": "kinetic-geo",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": "fired",
   "probability": 0.65,
   "grade": "RIGHT",
   "evidence": "Our lowest-conviction call (65%, weakest type), landed. No US-Iran kinetic exchange since Jun 9-10; Iran stayed at the Switzerland table and signed the MOU; oil fell to $78. The Jun 20-21 re-closure declaration was an MOU violation, not a framework withdrawal."
  },
  {
   "week": "W26",
   "slug": "2026-w26-crude-signal",
   "call": "DXY closes above 100 AND the 2y stays above 4.10% every session through Jun 29 -> Warsh's hawkish reset sticks, dollar bid holds",
   "type": "fed-rates",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": null,
   "probability": 0.7,
   "grade": "PARTIAL",
   "evidence": "DXY held >100 all week and hit a 13-mo high ~101.6 (Jun 25); but the 2y slipped to 4.09% on Jun 25 (in-line PCE trimmed hike premium), nicking the >4.10%-every-session threshold by 1bp. Thesis right (hawkish reset stuck, dollar bid at 4-mo oil lows); never neared the 4.0% invalidation. Sources: Investing.com DXY, Trading Economics 2y."
  },
  {
   "week": "W26",
   "slug": "2026-w26-crude-signal",
   "call": "Brent front-month closes below $85 every session through Jun 29 -> deflation regime holds",
   "type": "commodity",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": null,
   "probability": 0.75,
   "grade": "RIGHT",
   "evidence": "Clean. Brent closed below ~$78 every session and fell toward $72 by Jun 26 (WTI sub-$70 for the first time since Feb), never near $85, holding its lows even through the weekend US-Iran strikes. Source: Yahoo Finance front-month closes."
  },
  {
   "week": "W26",
   "slug": "2026-w26-crude-signal",
   "call": "Fujairah VLSFO premium over Rotterdam stays >40% AND Gulf war-risk hull >0.8% through Jun 29 -> freight premium stays decoupled (week 3)",
   "type": "freight",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": null,
   "probability": 0.85,
   "grade": "RIGHT",
   "evidence": "Both legs held. Fujairah/Rotterdam VLSFO premium ~52% (>40%) on Jun 29 despite compressing from ~87%; war-risk hull 0.8-1.5% on the Lloyd's-Chubb facility and 3-8% open market after the vessel strikes. Sources: Bunker Index, Insurance Business, gCaptain."
  },
  {
   "week": "W26",
   "slug": "2026-w26-crude-signal",
   "call": "Hormuz transits stay below ~70/day sustained (clearly under ~94 pre-war norm) through Jun 29, on both AIS + CENTCOM counts -> reopening stays partial",
   "type": "freight",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": null,
   "probability": 0.8,
   "grade": "RIGHT",
   "evidence": "Held with the dual-source/looser bar. Transits briefly touched ~70/day mid-week before the Jun 25 Ever Lovely strike reversed momentum, then ~40 (Jun 27), ~28 (Jun 28), ~22 (Jun 29), far under ~94 norm and below 70. Sources: Windward, IMF PortWatch."
  },
  {
   "week": "W26",
   "slug": "2026-w26-crude-signal",
   "call": "US-Iran MOU holds through Jun 29: no US-Iran kinetic resumption and no Iranian physical (vessel-blocking) closure -> $110 closure trade stays dead",
   "type": "kinetic-geo",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": null,
   "probability": 0.6,
   "grade": "WRONG",
   "evidence": "Missed. The MOU broke into a kinetic exchange: US strikes Jun 26, drones hit Ever Lovely (Jun 25) and tanker Kiku (Jun 27), US counter-strikes, IRGC missiles at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain (Jun 28), then a stand-down. Lowest-conviction call (60%) on our weakest type. Sources: CNBC, Al Jazeera, CNN."
  },
  {
   "week": "W27",
   "slug": "2026-w27-crude-signal",
   "call": "Fujairah/Rotterdam VLSFO premium stays >35% AND Gulf war-risk hull >0.8% through Jul 6 -> freight premium stays decoupled from the barrel (5th week)",
   "type": "freight",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": null,
   "probability": 0.85,
   "grade": "UNRESOLVED",
   "evidence": "Resolves by Ship & Bunker/Bunker Index (Fujairah, Rotterdam VLSFO) + Lloyd's List/Insurance Business war-risk reporting, Jul 6."
  },
  {
   "week": "W27",
   "slug": "2026-w27-crude-signal",
   "call": "Brent front-month closes below $80 every session through Jul 6, including across the Jul 5 OPEC+ meeting -> deflation regime holds",
   "type": "commodity",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": null,
   "probability": 0.75,
   "grade": "UNRESOLVED",
   "evidence": "Resolves by ICE Brent front-month daily closes, Jul 6."
  },
  {
   "week": "W27",
   "slug": "2026-w27-crude-signal",
   "call": "Hormuz transits stay below ~80/day sustained through Jul 6 (AIS + any CENTCOM count) -> reopening stays impaired by renewed hostilities",
   "type": "freight",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": null,
   "probability": 0.8,
   "grade": "UNRESOLVED",
   "evidence": "Resolves by IMF PortWatch/Windward AIS + CENTCOM transit counts, Jul 6."
  },
  {
   "week": "W27",
   "slug": "2026-w27-crude-signal",
   "call": "DXY closes above 100 every session through Jul 6 AND CME year-end hike odds stay above 60% -> Warsh's hawkish regime holds",
   "type": "fed-rates",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": null,
   "probability": 0.75,
   "grade": "UNRESOLVED",
   "evidence": "Resolves by ICE DXY daily closes + CME FedWatch, Jul 6."
  },
  {
   "week": "W27",
   "slug": "2026-w27-crude-signal",
   "call": "The Jun 28 US-Iran stand-down holds through Jul 6: no new US-Iran kinetic strike and no Iranian physical (vessel-blocking) closure -> ceasefire survives its first full week",
   "type": "kinetic-geo",
   "horizon": "7d",
   "condition": null,
   "probability": 0.55,
   "grade": "UNRESOLVED",
   "evidence": "Resolves by wire reporting (Reuters/AP), Jul 6. Priced as a coin-flip after the W26 MOU miss."
  }
 ]
}