STRAIT OF HORMUZ
is it open? DISRUPTED disrupted — Iran has twice declared the strait closed and traffic is at a near halt (single-digit daily transits vs a ~94 norm), but trackers still confirm reduced flow moving, so the closure is not verified · since Jul 12 LIVE
--:-- ET · CRISIS DAY · RE-ESCALATION DAY
DECLARED CLOSURE · TRANSIT DISPUTEDAug 30: the war's grammar shifted from strikes to signatures — and from doves to hawks. Iran and Oman unveiled a framework Aug 25-26 for a joint temporary navigational corridor with mine-clearing cooperation and a reported revenue-sharing arrangement (ING's caution stands: normalization likely needs US sanctions relief); Iran published a blacklist of 46 vessels for transit violations; CENTCOM declared the lanes cleared of Iranian-laid mines (a US operational claim — the flip rule grades neither side's statements); a single report has the USS Abraham Lincoln sailing home past Singapore, a drawdown signal not yet corroborated · the strait itself: two tankers struck off Oman Aug 24-25 (UKMTO-logged; an Aframax carrying 704,000 bbl of jet fuel reached Fujairah safely), counts ran 2 (Aug 24), then a same-outlet conflict of 1-vs-5 (Aug 25, unresolved and printed as such), 17 (Aug 26), 7 (Aug 27, Windward: 3 of 6 running dark), no count published for Aug 28-30 · Gulf exports have recovered to roughly 15-16M bpd — about two-thirds of pre-war flow (Goldman) · JACKSON HOLE REVERSED THE RATES STORY: Fed Chair Warsh said the 2% target is firm and the Fed will have work to do if inflation is not returning to it — September rate-HIKE odds jumped toward even, the dollar rallied, and spot gold fell $146 Friday to ~$4,454 while the December future settled 4,529.90 · Brent settled the week at $88.10, easing on corridor hope and recovering exports · Jizan's twice-delayed restart target is TODAY; no confirmation either way has been published, and we say so · the verdict stays Disrupted: transit counts, not statements — thin, conflicting, and never zero
- Open until Feb 28
- Strained skipped · the blockade came overnight
- Contested Jun 19 – Jul 12
- Disrupted current · Feb 28 – Jun 10 · again from Jul 12 (declared closure, disputed)
- Closed Jun 10 – 19
THROUGHPUT 14/day Jul 29, then "a sharp fall" · no numeric count published since vs ~94/day norm under renewed attack since Jul 7 · closure risk live trend only · AIS-visible, ~5-day lag
SINCE YESTERDAY
Chokepoint IndexLIVE
78/100
--
0calmelevatedcritical
Brent CrudeLIVE
$95.23
--
off the ~$118 wartime peak
War-Risk PremiumEST
3–8%
rebuilding after the Jul 7 collapse
0%est. of price15%
LATEST DRIVER what's moving oil right now
Global supply glut and soft demand are capping war-risk premium, pushing Brent down despite escalating Hormuz tensions.
Crude Signal desk synthesis · auto-updated from the wire
MARKET ODDSreal-money forecasts · via Polymarket · not our calls
4.8%Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?▲ from 3.5% last poll$12.1M traded
May 24-12pts · Trump says U.S.-Iran peace deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz 'largely negotiatedJun 12-9pts · Iran insists on nuclear enrichment and control over Strait of Hormuz under any
25.5%Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?▼ from 26.5% last pollSep 15: 0.4% · Sep 30: 2.5% · Dec 31: 25.5%$18.9M traded
May 24+11pts · Britain's navy prepares to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz while waiting fJul 7-11pts · Oil tanker hit at Hormuz: US accuses Iran of attacking 2 commercial ships, mul
20.5%Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$2.8M traded
Jul 5-18pts · ‘Saw missiles for first time’: Paanch Saab on her baptism by fire at sea near Jul 5+15pts · Iran War Looms Over NATO Summit
OUR OWN READS, GRADED: 85 resolved · 44 right / 13 partial / 28 wrong · every miss public → the record
THE WIRE
live intel + events · all times ET BRENT CRUDE
$/bbl--
Background structural context, not live
DARK FLEET AIS-visible only
Visible transits / day
3 · Aug 23
Pre-crisis norm ~94 transits/day · AIS-visible only · PortWatch, ~5-day lag
Sanctioned fleet
1,540
vessels under OFAC sanction · watchlist armed
Satellite census
1,667 · 60% dark
SAR census · Jun 20 – Jul 4
Detections © 2026 Global Fishing Watch, Inc. · accessed daily via globalfishingwatch.org · contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (ESA) · acquisitions lag ~5 days
Census map · radar detections not broadcasting AIS · Jun 20 – Jul 4 14-DAY AGGREGATE · NOT LIVE
Tap a cell for counts · larger + brighter = more dark detections in that 0.1° cell
TRANSIT STATUS
Truce collapsed. The Jun 28 stand-down held through Khamenei's funeral week, then broke on Jul 7: three tankers struck in the strait, US strikes on Iranian targets, Washington's oil-sale waiver revoked, and Trump declaring the truce over (not a formal, mutual termination; Iran unmatched). Throughput is 14/day Jul 29, then "a sharp fall" · no numeric count published since vs a ~94 pre-war norm; on Jul 12 Iran formally declared the strait closed — a declaration maritime trackers dispute, with the route reported still physically passable. The tell is transit counts, not statements.
Closed to all vessels Jun 10–19. Prior corridor era (Mar–Jun): China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Malaysia, Iraq approved with IRGC vetting (~$2M/transit) · US, Israel, UK/EU blocked throughout
REROUTE IMPACT
Cape route adds10–14 days/leg
Extra fuel/voyage~$1.5M
Surcharge/container$1.5K–4K
Hull war-risk insurance, June peak2–6%/transit (est.)
Gulf revenue at risk, June peak~$1.1B/day (est.)
Pipeline bypass cap~8.8 mb/d max
Cape/fuel/surcharge rows are structural reroute economics; the two June-peak rows are open-market estimates from the closure's worst week and have eased under the stand-down (the KPI row's war-risk figure is the OIL-PRICE premium, a different measure than hull insurance). Bypass = Saudi East-West (7 mb/d, restored Apr) + UAE Habshan–Fujairah (~1.8) vs ~14.6 mb/d normal Hormuz flow
FREIGHT RATES
Fujairah VLSFO$832/MT (+18)
Rotterdam VLSFO$675.5/MT
Strait fuel premium23% over Rotterdam
Container (Drewry WCI)$4,473/40ft
Suez transits37/day · 08/23
Bunker assessed daily · container index weekly · tanker spot rates not shown