STRAIT OF HORMUZ
is it open? CONTESTED open but contested · since Jun 28 LIVE
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DE-ESCALATION WATCH · CONTESTEDJun 28 stand-down holding, no confirmed strikes since · indirect US-Iran talks via Doha (working groups formed Jul 1, no direct negotiations) · traffic recovering to ~35-70 transits/day vs a ~94 norm · JMIC threat SUBSTANTIAL, mine warning active · armed and reversible
Crisis ScoreLIVE
65/100
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0calmelevatedcritical
Brent CrudeLIVE
$71.62
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off the ~$118 wartime peak
War-Risk PremiumEST
0–2%
priced out as the stand-down holds
0%est. of price15%
LATEST DRIVER what's moving oil right now
The global supply glut is capping any war premium from Hormuz tensions, keeping Brent flat.
Crude Signal desk synthesis · auto-updated from the wire
MARKET ODDSreal-money forecasts · via Polymarket · not our calls
25.5%Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Jul 15: 7.5% · Jul 31: 25.5% · Dec 31: 82.5%$21.1M traded4.9%Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$1.4M traded13.5%Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$39.2M traded12.5%US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?$28.3M tradedTHE WIRE
live intel + events · all times ET BRENT CRUDE
$/bbl--
Background structural context, not live
DARK FLEET AIS-visible only
Visible transits / day
27 · Jun 28
Pre-crisis avg ~84 transits/day · AIS-visible only
Sanctioned fleet
1,497
vessels under OFAC sanction · watchlist armed
Satellite census
1,667 · 60% dark
SAR census · Jun 19 – Jul 3
Detections © 2026 Global Fishing Watch, Inc. · accessed daily via globalfishingwatch.org · contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (ESA) · acquisitions lag ~5 days
Census map · radar detections not broadcasting AIS · Jun 19 – Jul 3 14-DAY AGGREGATE · NOT LIVE
Tap a cell for counts · larger + brighter = more dark detections in that 0.1° cell
TRANSIT STATUS
Contested ceasefire. The Jun 17 MOU reopening broke into a kinetic exchange Jun 26-28 (US-Iran strikes, two ships hit, IRGC missiles at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain), then a Jun 28 stand-down that has held since, with indirect US-Iran talks via Doha. Ships move again at ~35-70/day vs a ~94 pre-war norm under a widened southern corridor; JMIC rates the threat SUBSTANTIAL with an active mine warning. Open but armed and reversible.
Closed to all vessels Jun 10–19. Prior corridor era (Mar–Jun): China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Malaysia, Iraq approved with IRGC vetting (~$2M/transit) · US, Israel, UK/EU blocked throughout
REROUTE IMPACT
Cape route adds10–14 days/leg
Extra fuel/voyage~$1.5M
Surcharge/container$1.5K–4K
War-risk insurance2–6% hull/transit
Gulf oil revenue loss~$1.1B/day
Pipeline bypass cap~8.8 mb/d max
Bypass = Saudi East-West (7 mb/d, restored Apr) + UAE Habshan–Fujairah (~1.8) vs ~14.6 mb/d normal Hormuz flow
FREIGHT RATES
Fujairah VLSFO$757.5/MT (−88)
Rotterdam VLSFO$594/MT
Strait fuel premium28% over Rotterdam
Suez transits44/day · 06/28
Bunker assessed daily · container index weekly · tanker spot rates not shown