STRAIT OF HORMUZ
is it open? DISRUPTED disrupted — Iran has twice declared the strait closed and traffic is at a near halt (single-digit daily transits vs a ~94 norm), but trackers still confirm reduced flow moving, so the closure is not verified · since Jul 12 LIVE
--:-- ET · CRISIS DAY · RE-ESCALATION DAY
DECLARED CLOSURE · TRANSIT DISPUTED
- Sep 14: the war found the bypass. The week ran the biggest attack wave on commercial shipping of the entire conflict — the US destroyed five IRGC tankers Sep 8, Iran claims strikes on ten ships Sep 9 (attributed, unverified), and on Sep 10 the Houthis SEIZED the port of Mocha, opening a Red Sea front to pair with Hormuz
- tanker war-risk and freight rates printed RECORD highs
- then the weekend brought the sleeper: drone strikes reportedly knocked out Saudi Arabia's EAST-WEST PIPELINE — the overland bypass around Hormuz, roughly 4% of global supply capacity; the relief valve every supply model assumes is now itself a target
- the US began LIMITING air-defense escort time slots for transits (a protection-capacity constraint, not a closure) and DP World announced overland trucking expansion — the adaptation economy pricing in duration
- counts (Kpler via gCaptain, the only reachable aggregation this window — said plainly): 12 (Sep 8), a source-conflicted 11-or-7 (Sep 9, both printed), 7 (Sep 10, vs ~15 ten-day average and ~125 pre-war), NO published count Sep 11-13 — absences, not zeros
- Brent settled 101.21 / 107.63 / 104.61 and opens the week ~$108.6; the ULSD crack itself settled above $100 three straight days
- August CPI printed HOT Sep 11 (core +0.3% m/m, the summer's fastest) — gold fell through the war week; the Fed meets Wednesday
- Iran's restricted zone: still announced, not implemented
- the verdict stays Disrupted: transit counts, not statements — thinned to single digits, never verified zero
- Open until Feb 28
- Strained skipped · the blockade came overnight
- Contested Jun 19 – Jul 12
- Disrupted current · Feb 28 – Jun 10 · again from Jul 12 (declared closure, disputed)
- Closed Jun 10 – 19
THROUGHPUT 14/day Jul 29, then "a sharp fall" · no numeric count published since vs ~94/day norm under renewed attack since Jul 7 · closure risk live trend only · AIS-visible, ~5-day lag
SINCE YESTERDAY
Chokepoint IndexLIVE
84/100
--
0calmelevatedcritical
Brent CrudeLIVE
$113.19
--
off the ~$118 wartime peak
War-Risk PremiumEST
3–8%
rebuilding after the Jul 7 collapse
0%est. of price15%
LATEST DRIVER what's moving oil right now
Crude Signal desk synthesis · auto-updated from the wire
MARKET ODDSreal-money forecasts · via Polymarket · not our calls
16.5%Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?▲ from 15.5% last poll$17.5M traded
Jul 13+9pts · Watch Ships Transit the Strait of Hormuz in Secret as US-Iran Attacks ContinueSep 10+8pts · US Iran War Live Updates: Israel minister threatens strikes on Iran energy sit
11.5%Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Nov 1: 0.9% · Dec 1: 5.5% · Jan 1: 11.5%$19.4M traded
May 24+11pts · Britain's navy prepares to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz while waiting fJul 7-11pts · Oil tanker hit at Hormuz: US accuses Iran of attacking 2 commercial ships, mul
8%Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$3.6M traded
Jul 5-18pts · ‘Saw missiles for first time’: Paanch Saab on her baptism by fire at sea near Jul 5+15pts · Iran War Looms Over NATO Summit
OUR OWN READS, GRADED: 122 resolved · 75 right / 13 partial / 34 wrong · every miss public → the record
THE WIRE
live intel + events · all times ET BRENT CRUDE
$/bbl--
Background structural context, not live
DARK FLEET AIS-visible only
Visible transits / day
4 · Oct 18
Pre-crisis norm ~94 transits/day · AIS-visible only · PortWatch, ~5-day lag
Sanctioned fleet
1,568
vessels under OFAC sanction · watchlist armed
Satellite census
1,667 · 60% dark
SAR census · Jun 20 – Jul 4
Detections © 2026 Global Fishing Watch, Inc. · accessed daily via globalfishingwatch.org · contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (ESA) · acquisitions lag ~5 days
Census map · radar detections not broadcasting AIS · Jun 20 – Jul 4 14-DAY AGGREGATE · NOT LIVE
Tap a cell for counts · larger + brighter = more dark detections in that 0.1° cell
TRANSIT STATUS
Truce collapsed. The Jun 28 stand-down held through Khamenei's funeral week, then broke on Jul 7: three tankers struck in the strait, US strikes on Iranian targets, Washington's oil-sale waiver revoked, and Trump declaring the truce over (not a formal, mutual termination; Iran unmatched). Throughput is 14/day Jul 29, then "a sharp fall" · no numeric count published since vs a ~94 pre-war norm; on Jul 12 Iran formally declared the strait closed — a declaration maritime trackers dispute, with the route reported still physically passable. The tell is transit counts, not statements.
Closed to all vessels Jun 10–19. Prior corridor era (Mar–Jun): China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Malaysia, Iraq approved with IRGC vetting (~$2M/transit) · US, Israel, UK/EU blocked throughout
REROUTE IMPACT
Cape route adds10–14 days/leg
Extra fuel/voyage~$1.5M
Surcharge/container$1.5K–4K
Hull war-risk insurance, June peak2–6%/transit (est.)
Gulf revenue at risk, June peak~$1.1B/day (est.)
Pipeline bypass cap~8.8 mb/d max
Cape/fuel/surcharge rows are structural reroute economics; the two June-peak rows are open-market estimates from the closure's worst week and have eased under the stand-down (the KPI row's war-risk figure is the OIL-PRICE premium, a different measure than hull insurance). Bypass = Saudi East-West (7 mb/d, restored Apr) + UAE Habshan–Fujairah (~1.8) vs ~14.6 mb/d normal Hormuz flow
FREIGHT RATES
Fujairah VLSFO$963/MT (−9)
Rotterdam VLSFO$750.5/MT
Strait fuel premium28% over Rotterdam
Container (Drewry WCI)$4,485/40ft
Suez transits43/day · 10/18
Bunker assessed daily · container index weekly · tanker spot rates not shown