Track Record
Every forward-looking call this newsletter has made, graded in public against what actually happened. Misses included, with post-mortems. Published issues are never edited and grades are never retroactively changed.
Where the calls land, by type
Macro data is where we're sharpest. Kinetic geo and diplomatic calls are where we've been wrong most. We publish this so you don't have to guess which kinds of calls to trust.
| Call type | Resolved | Right | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| COMMODITY | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| FREIGHT | 4 | 3 | 75% |
| MACRO DATA | 14 | 7 | 50% |
| KINETIC GEO | 11 | 2 | 18% |
| DIPLOMATIC | 7 | 1 | 14% |
| SUPPLY POLICY | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| FED / DOLLAR | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| CRYPTO | 1 | 0 | 0% |
Calibration
From W25 onward every call carries its own probability, set in 10% steps at publish time and shown on the call below. Once 50 probabilistic calls have resolved, this section will publish the Brier score and a calibration curve — how often our 70% calls actually land. Until then there is no number here, because a calibration score computed on a handful of calls would be noise dressed up as rigor.
The full log
Graded weeks first, newest on top; weeks still awaiting verdicts sit at the end. Grades follow each issue's own published scorecard, cross-checked against daily price history. NO-FIRE means the call's condition never triggered.
DXY closes above 100 AND the 2y stays above 4.10% every session through Jun 29 -> Warsh's hawkish reset sticks, dollar bid holds
DXY held >100 all week and hit a 13-mo high ~101.6 (Jun 25); but the 2y slipped to 4.09% on Jun 25 (in-line PCE trimmed hike premium), nicking the >4.10%-every-session threshold by 1bp. Thesis right (hawkish reset stuck, dollar bid at 4-mo oil lows); never neared the 4.0% invalidation. Sources: Investing.com DXY, Trading Economics 2y.
Brent front-month closes below $85 every session through Jun 29 -> deflation regime holds
Clean. Brent closed below ~$78 every session and fell toward $72 by Jun 26 (WTI sub-$70 for the first time since Feb), never near $85, holding its lows even through the weekend US-Iran strikes. Source: Yahoo Finance front-month closes.
Fujairah VLSFO premium over Rotterdam stays >40% AND Gulf war-risk hull >0.8% through Jun 29 -> freight premium stays decoupled (week 3)
Both legs held. Fujairah/Rotterdam VLSFO premium ~52% (>40%) on Jun 29 despite compressing from ~87%; war-risk hull 0.8-1.5% on the Lloyd's-Chubb facility and 3-8% open market after the vessel strikes. Sources: Bunker Index, Insurance Business, gCaptain.
Hormuz transits stay below ~70/day sustained (clearly under ~94 pre-war norm) through Jun 29, on both AIS + CENTCOM counts -> reopening stays partial
Held with the dual-source/looser bar. Transits briefly touched ~70/day mid-week before the Jun 25 Ever Lovely strike reversed momentum, then ~40 (Jun 27), ~28 (Jun 28), ~22 (Jun 29), far under ~94 norm and below 70. Sources: Windward, IMF PortWatch.
US-Iran MOU holds through Jun 29: no US-Iran kinetic resumption and no Iranian physical (vessel-blocking) closure -> $110 closure trade stays dead
Missed. The MOU broke into a kinetic exchange: US strikes Jun 26, drones hit Ever Lovely (Jun 25) and tanker Kiku (Jun 27), US counter-strikes, IRGC missiles at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain (Jun 28), then a stand-down. Lowest-conviction call (60%) on our weakest type. Sources: CNBC, Al Jazeera, CNN.
FOMC holds 3.50-3.75% and the SEP dot plot erases the last 2026 cut (hawkish hold, no hike) -> DXY holds 99-100, 2y ~4.0-4.1%, risk grinds higher
Condition right: the Fed held 12-0 and the median 2026 dot moved past zero cuts to imply a hike. But we under-priced the consequence. Warsh out-hawked the call: DXY broke 100 to ~100.8 (not the 99-100 band), the 2y cleared 4.19% (above ~4.0-4.1%), and equities sold off on FOMC day rather than grinding higher. Right thesis (hawkish hold, cut erased), too timid on magnitude.
Brent front-month closes below $90 every session through Jun 22 (peace-premium unwind holds as the dominant regime)
Clean. Brent traded ~$78-81 all week and never approached $90; the peace-premium unwind held as the dominant force. Brent ~$78.6 Jun 22.
Fujairah VLSFO premium over Rotterdam stays >40% AND Gulf war-risk hull premium stays >0.8% (freight decouples from the barrel)
Our highest-conviction call, cleanest hit. Oil fell to a four-month low while Fujairah held ~82% over Rotterdam ($1,100 vs $604) and war-risk stayed 0.8-1.5% (Lloyd's+Chubb launched $200M capacity Jun 19 at current rates, not cuts). Barrel cheap, freight dear.
Hormuz daily transits stay below 47, half the ~94 pre-crisis baseline (reopening stays paper-only on mine-clearing)
Honest split. Our pre-registered source (AIS-based PortWatch/Windward, ~20/day) held under 47, but CENTCOM's more complete military count (dark-vessel inclusive) hit 55 on Jun 20. By the named source the call holds; by the fullest count the threshold was touched. Strait still a trickle vs ~94 norm, but graded down for the ambiguity.
US-Iran ceasefire holds through Jun 22: no US-Iran kinetic resumption, no formal Iranian withdrawal -> $110 closure trigger stays dead
Our lowest-conviction call (65%, weakest type), landed. No US-Iran kinetic exchange since Jun 9-10; Iran stayed at the Switzerland table and signed the MOU; oil fell to $78. The Jun 20-21 re-closure declaration was an MOU violation, not a framework withdrawal.
May CPI (Wed Jun 10) hot: headline +0.4% MoM or core +0.3%+ -> hike tail goes live, DXY breaks 100
Headline fired hot (+0.5% MoM, +4.2% YoY) but core printed soft (+0.2%). Consequences failed: DXY stalled at 99.5 with no break of 100, and gold rose toward $4,340 rather than testing $4,250. The energy-driven headline was undercut by the soft core and the Iran deal collapsing the oil input. Right on the headline, wrong on every market consequence.
May CPI soft -> hike tail fades, relief rally
Core fired soft (+0.2% MoM). DXY unwound to 99.5 and gold reclaimed toward $4,400 as called, but the 'oil handed back to the strait' clause missed when the peace framework sent oil lower instead. Right on the dollar and gold, wrong on oil.
Iran takes closure action -> Brent gaps
Condition never fired. Iran's Jun 11 'total closure' declaration and Jun 12 drone fire (both downed) laid no new mines, seized no vessel, and transit did not newly collapse. A peace framework landed instead and Brent fell to $83. An unfired condition is void, not a miss.
Pause-break fade trade
Condition never fired on its terms: the direct Iran-Israel missile axis held all week, and the disabled Settebello was Palauan-flagged (a US blockade action), not a US-flagged ship hit by Iran. Void.
EIA shows SPR sub-350 -> runway headline escalates
Condition fired exactly: the SPR drew 7.9mb to 349.2mb, under 350 as called. Consequence failed: WTI fell to ~$80 rather than holding the predicted ~$90 floor, as the peace framework made the reserve-runway math irrelevant overnight. Right on the reserve, wrong on the floor.
Iran acts on closure (mines, seizures, transit to zero) -> Brent gaps through $110
Iran never acted; no gap occurred and Brent slipped to ~$94.5 (Jun 8 close $94.24). The necessary-condition read held: no action, no gap.
Macron channel reopens or ceasefire resumes -> Brent unwinds toward $88
Oil softened to the low-$90s but diplomacy stayed broken; the easing came from jobs + OPEC+ barrels. Right direction, wrong driver.
US-Iran strike with US vessel hit, Gulf base casualty, or tanker sinking -> Brent $115+, risk-off
Casualty leg fired (Kuwait airport, 1 dead Jun 2; Haifa, 4 dead Jun 7); Brent FELL (Jun 5 close $93.09). The macro regime overrode the geopolitical tail.
May jobs <100K or unemployment 4.4%+ -> cut path reopens, DXY rolls to 98
Payrolls +172K, unemployment 4.3% - the mirror image; cut path slammed shut, a hike got priced, DXY firmed to ~99.9. The framing correctly named NFP as the pivot.
EIA 8mb+ SPR draw -> runway alarm goes from Q3 risk to certainty
SPR down 7.9mb to 357.1mb, right at threshold; commercial crude -8mb. Runway is now a standing headline.
Iran mine-clears or US suspends blockade -> Brent breaks $90 within 48h
Neither happened; Brent tagged $91.12 Friday on no-deal + soft GDP, not on execution (May 29 close $92.05). Wrong mechanism.
Israel-Hezbollah escalates or Iran rejects MoU -> Brent reclaims $105
Both legs fired (Beaufort Castle May 31; talks suspended); Brent surged ~7% to $97, not $105. Right trigger, short on magnitude.
New Home Sales / Durables miss -> DXY to 98.50, gold $4,600
Home sales missed but Durables beat +7.9%; DXY held ~99, gold fell to $4,460.
Core PCE +0.3% MoM or headline 2.7%+ -> DXY tests 100, gold breaks $4,500
Core softer at +0.2%, headline hot 3.8%; gold broke $4,500 (to $4,460) but DXY never tested 100. Gold leg landed, dollar leg didn't.
SPR draw <5mb signals deal confidence; 6mb+ signals hedging
SPR drew 9.06mb to 365; the hedging branch fired and the deal collapsed days later. Read diplomacy correctly when headlines didn't.
PF Plus clears convoy with no engagement -> Brent -$5-8
PF Plus did not restart; Brent gave back $15 anyway on deal optimism (May 22 close $103.54). Right direction, wrong mechanism.
IRGC engages convoy or US vessel -> Brent $115+
No US escalation; Brent did the opposite, cracking to $97. Graded against the standing $115 template.
UMich <47 or Philly/Empire miss -> DXY rolls to 98, gold $4,650
UMich crashed to 44.8 and Philly missed huge, but DXY ROSE to 99.32 on inflation expectations. Trigger fired, wrong direction.
Fed speaker reframes services-PPI sticky -> DXY tests 100
Minutes were hawkish; DXY touched 99.32, never cleared 100. Half-fire.
SPR 6mb+ draw to sub-378 -> WTI floor $100 holds
SPR drew 10mb to <375 but WTI broke $100 down to $93 (May 22 close $96.60) on the diplomatic surprise. Right number, wrong outcome.
CPI hot (headline >3.5% or core 3.4%+) -> 2y to 3.95%+, DXY 98.50, gold -$50
Core MoM +0.4% hot; 2y to 4.08%; DXY cleared 99; gold gave back $182. Cleanest single fire, per W21 scorecard.
Project Freedom restarts / US vessel fired on -> Brent $115+ in one session
MSV Haji Ali sank May 13; Brent hit $109.26 (May 15 close), not $115. Half-fired.
Trump accepts modified Iran proposal -> Brent gaps to $90
Trump dismissed it; Brent went to $109+.
Warsh dovish confirmation -> DXY breaks 97
Warsh confirmed 54-45, but hot CPI/PPI overwhelmed; DXY cleared 99 instead.
CLARITY markup advances -> ETH catches BTC/SOL within 5 sessions
Markup advanced 15-9, but crypto sold off on CPI: BTC -6%, ETH -10%, SOL -12%.
SPR drained 5mb+ to sub-388 -> oil floor $100 firms
SPR drew 8.6mb to ~384; WTI held >$100, peaked $105.42 (May 15).
Saudi cuts -> Brent $110+, run at $120
Saudi did not cut; Brent ripped on conflict then cracked to ~$101 (May 8 close $101.29). Mechanism wrong.
Saudi releases capacity -> Brent breaks $105, tests $100
Brent broke $105 (May 8 close $101.29) but Saudi never released capacity. Right outcome, wrong cause.
Project Freedom succeeds -> WCI freight eases 2-3%
Project Freedom paused after 48h; WCI rose +3% to $2,286.
Fed speakers more hawkish -> DXY clears 99
Speakers were hawkish; DXY fell to a 10-week low of 97.84 (May 8). Hawkish-Fed-lifts-dollar mechanism broken.
Trump accepts Iran proposal -> Brent gaps -$15, tests $98
Trump rejected the proposal ('TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE'); trigger never fired. Graded WRONG in the W20 scorecard.
Powell cites Iran/energy CPI risk -> DXY through 99, gold breaks $4,650
Per W19 scorecard: Powell cited energy; gold cracked $4,650 to $4,545; DXY tagged 98.92.
IRGC seizes US-flagged vessel -> Brent $115+ in one session
No US seizure, but Brent hit $118.03 (Apr 29) anyway on UAE/OPEC exit. Right idea, wrong trigger.
Pakistan restart confirmed -> Brent retests the $90 floor
Pakistan opened corridors but Brent went the opposite way, to $118.
Core PCE >3.0% YoY -> 2y yield +10bps
Core PCE 3.2%; 2y +exactly 10bps to 3.94%. Clean call per W19 scorecard.
CLARITY markup advances -> ETH/SOL re-rate vs BTC
Markup did not advance; BTC outperformed. W19 marks it Open.
If Tehran returns to Pakistan talks within the week, Brent holds $90-100
Graded by W18 scorecard: Brent held the called range intraweek, then moved to $101 through it.
If Iranian forces retaliate against a US-flagged vessel, the floor breaks down fast; Goldman's $120 reactivates
No US-flagged retaliation that week; Iran hit two non-US vessels. Condition unmet.
If DXY slips below 97 and gold tags $4,900, the structural thesis hardens
Per W18 scorecard: DXY held 98.0-98.8. Neither trigger fired.
If Iran retaliates against the US Navy, expect a rapid move toward $150
Multiple kinetic US-Iran exchanges occurred (W20, W23, W24); Brent peaked at $118.03 (Apr 29) and sat ~$94 by W24. $150 never printed.
If the ceasefire fails Tuesday night, expect oil to surge toward Goldman's $150 scenario
Apr 8 deadline passed without a deal; Brent FELL to $94.75 (Apr 8 close). Oil never approached $150 at any point in the crisis.
Relayed Goldman $115 base case, $150-200 if blockade extends to June
Third-party scenario, not an owned call. Brent in June 2026: ~$94. The $150-200 band never came close.
Fujairah/Rotterdam VLSFO premium stays >35% AND Gulf war-risk hull >0.8% through Jul 6 -> freight premium stays decoupled from the barrel (5th week)
Resolves by Ship & Bunker/Bunker Index (Fujairah, Rotterdam VLSFO) + Lloyd's List/Insurance Business war-risk reporting, Jul 6.
Brent front-month closes below $80 every session through Jul 6, including across the Jul 5 OPEC+ meeting -> deflation regime holds
Resolves by ICE Brent front-month daily closes, Jul 6.
Hormuz transits stay below ~80/day sustained through Jul 6 (AIS + any CENTCOM count) -> reopening stays impaired by renewed hostilities
Resolves by IMF PortWatch/Windward AIS + CENTCOM transit counts, Jul 6.
DXY closes above 100 every session through Jul 6 AND CME year-end hike odds stay above 60% -> Warsh's hawkish regime holds
Resolves by ICE DXY daily closes + CME FedWatch, Jul 6.
The Jun 28 US-Iran stand-down holds through Jul 6: no new US-Iran kinetic strike and no Iranian physical (vessel-blocking) closure -> ceasefire survives its first full week
Resolves by wire reporting (Reuters/AP), Jul 6. Priced as a coin-flip after the W26 MOU miss.
Expect another sharp move upward in oil if the mid-April supply cliff hits
No discrete cliff event was ever declared; no price level or date to test.
A diplomatic breakthrough would likely cause a rapid reversal in oil
Directionally trivial; no threshold or date.
Methodology
- A call counts as falsifiable only if it states a level or event, and a horizon. Early issues (W14–W17) mostly relayed third-party scenarios; the Binary Triggers framework (W18 onward) made nearly every call gradeable. Both eras are shown — including the unfalsifiable statements, because pretending they weren't made would defeat the point.
- RIGHT — threshold met, direction correct, inside the horizon. PARTIAL — right direction or trigger, short on magnitude or wrong on mechanism. WRONG — wrong direction or wrong outcome. UNRESOLVED — window still open or condition never triggered.
- From W25 onward, grading gets stricter: a call whose trigger condition never fired grades VOID instead of WRONG, so the ledger separates "the setup never happened" from "we read it wrong."
- Grades are written by the newsletter itself in the following week's scorecard, then re-verified against daily close data. Published grades are never changed afterward.
Nothing here is investment advice. See About for the full disclaimer.
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