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Day 186 of the Hormuz crisis, published Wednesday — the second missed Monday in three weeks, and this time the desk answers with a board instead of a gap: a two-session short board, registered at today's settle and labeled exactly what it is. W35 graded five for five — a second straight perfect board, with the boardless W34 gap sitting between the two; the record is 44-28. While the desk was dark the war re-escalated into direct US-Iran exchange: fresh American airstrikes, two supertankers attacked, two seafarers killed, transit counts down to four a day. Brent ran 8.7% in three sessions; gold broke the level our floor defended, two sessions after the window closed. The calibration curve unlocks when this board resolves Friday.

Day 177 of the Hormuz crisis. Treasury launched Operation Economic Outcast — the promised economic D-day — and crude sold the news. Iran answered with a threat of not a single drop. Both capitals now argue with the tape in opposite directions: Tehran says the strait is closed, Washington says oil is surging through, and the trackers say what they have said for weeks — thin, dark, nonzero. Gold pressed to ~$4,700 ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole debut Friday. No grades this Monday: last week's board gap was printed as a gap, and the record stands 39-28. A new board registers at today's settle.

Day 174 of the Hormuz crisis, published four days late — the miss is the first item graded. W33 went FIVE FOR FIVE, the desk's first perfect week; the record is 39-28. Then the 60-day arrangement expired and Iran turned the corridor into a toll booth backed by force: a tanker seized, a chief engineer killed, two ADNOC ships struck. Brent ~$94, gold ~$4,650, and no board was registered this week — a gap we print rather than paper over.

Day 163 of the Hormuz crisis. Diplomacy finally produced a mechanism — an Iran-Oman corridor framework for the strait — and then Iran priced it: sanctions relief, war reparations, and transit through Iranian territorial waters. Gold smashed the desk's 4,150 bar, and the honest attribution is a rates story: two catastrophic jobs prints, not a war bid. W32 graded 3 right, 1 wrong, 1 VOID under a registration failure we disclose in full — including voiding a call that would have won. The record: 34-28, misses included.

Day 156 of the Hormuz crisis. The week ran the entire war in five sessions: the price floor broke on peace hopes Monday, the strike pause died Tuesday night, the US ran its heaviest strikes of the war Wednesday, Iran hit US-linked bases in Kuwait and Bahrain Friday, and the weekend ended on a cancelled mega-strike and talks that Washington announces and Tehran denies. Through all of it, tanker crossings ROSE to 14 a day, the week's high, then the count went dark. W31 graded 4 right, 1 wrong; the all-time record is 31-27, misses included. This board was the first registered after Monday's settle, under rules a miss forced.

Day 149 of the Hormuz crisis. The war opened a second chokepoint front: Houthi strikes hit Saudi tankers in the Red Sea — threatening the Yanbu end of Saudi Arabia's Hormuz-bypass pipeline — and Brent posted its first $100 close since May ($100.69) before settling the week at $96.78, +9.9%. Hormuz crossings fell to ONE tanker on July 23, the lowest since May 7; a near halt is still not a verified one, so our verdict holds at disrupted. W30 graded 4 right, 1 wrong — the conditional architecture contained the fourth straight upside price surprise — and the all-time record went positive for the first time: 27 right, 26 wrong, misses included. The board now grades itself against an enforced rulebook.

Day 142 of the Hormuz crisis. The market stopped discounting the closure: Brent +15.9% to $88.10, the whole fuels complex up 14-16% in a week, as strait transits fell to a two-month low of 7 vessels, US strikes killed about 50, Tehran declared the Islamabad MoU suspended, and the IRGC re-declared the strait closed claiming two tankers destroyed — claims no tracker confirms. Our verdict holds at disrupted: a near halt is not a verified one. W29 graded 4 right, 1 wrong — and the one miss was our third straight same-direction price miss, so the flagship call moves off price bands onto the structural calls this desk actually wins. Gold fell 2.2% through all of it.

Day 135 of the Hormuz crisis. The funeral truce collapsed: three tankers were struck July 7, the US declared the ceasefire over July 8, and the weekend brought the heaviest US strikes in weeks before, on July 12, Iran formally declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping. Maritime trackers dispute it, and the market priced the dispute: Brent rebuilt a war premium but only to $76.19 (+6.1%), capped by OPEC+ supply, while diesel ripped +12.6% as distillate stress transmitted first. Our verdict holds at disrupted, not closed, because the tell is transit counts, not statements. W28 calls graded 1 right, 4 wrong.

Day 130. The June 28 US-Iran stand-down collapsed overnight: three commercial tankers struck in the Strait of Hormuz, US strikes on Iran, Washington's oil-sale waiver revoked, and President Trump declaring the truce over. Brent jumped about 5% to ~$79 and the crisis score reset to 78. What happened, what it means, and which of our own week-old calls just broke against us.

Day 128 of the Hormuz crisis. The war paused to bury the man whose killing started it: Ayatollah Khamenei's long-delayed state funeral runs July 4-9 under an explicit one-week truce, talks frozen until it ends. His successor son did not appear. OPEC+, now seven members, added a fifth straight tranche (+188,000 bpd for August) and Brent slid to $71.88 Monday. The freight premium we called fire-tested at 85% collapsed instead: Fujairah bunker over Rotterdam went 52% to 11.6% in a week, our worst-priced miss of the war. War-risk hull insurance held near 2%, eight times pre-war. Everything now expires July 9. W27 calls graded 3 right, 1 partial, 1 wrong.

Day 121 of the Hormuz crisis. The US-Iran MOU cracked into a live kinetic exchange over the weekend: US strikes on Iran June 26, drones hitting the containership Ever Lovely (June 25) and the tanker Kiku (June 27), US counter-strikes on ten targets, and IRGC missiles at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain June 28, before a fragile stand-down. Oil's verdict: WTI printed below $70 for the first time since February and opened Monday up just 1.6%. The barrel shrugged a hot-war weekend, because OPEC+ keeps adding and Gulf exports are back to ~75% of pre-war. Meanwhile May core PCE came in-line, not soft (3.4% y/y, headline 4.1%), so the falling barrel has not yet shown up as disinflation. Warsh's hawkish reset held, the dollar hit a 13-month high, but the 2-year slipped to 4.09% as the market trims the hike. W26 calls graded 3 right, 1 partial, 1 miss (the MOU).

Day 114 of the Hormuz crisis. Brent fell to a four-month low near $78.6 as the 14-point US-Iran MOU was signed and the strait began trickling open (CENTCOM counted 55 transits June 20; Iran re-declared closure June 20-21 over Lebanon). The twist came from the Fed: Warsh held 12-0 but the dot plot flipped to a median hike, he killed forward guidance, and the dollar broke 100 (2y 4.19%, 10y 4.50%) in a hawkish shock. The Fed is fighting the last war as the oil-driven disinflation arrives; May PCE Thursday is the test. The barrel is cheap, the freight stays dear (Fujairah bunker 82% over Rotterdam, war-risk unmoved). W25 calls graded 3 right, 2 partial, no misses.

Day 107 of the Hormuz crisis, and peace broke out on paper. The US and Iran announced an unsigned framework to end the war and reopen the strait; Trump said start your engines and Brent collapsed ~12% to $83 as equities ripped and gold rose. But the deal is not signed (ceremony June 19, Israel refuses to leave Lebanon), the strait is still mined and shut with ~600 vessels queued, and the freight premium did not budge: container rates kept climbing to $3,549, Fujairah bunker held ~92% over Rotterdam, and Gulf war-risk stays war-priced into 2027. May CPI split hot-headline (+0.5%) soft-core (+0.2%), the dollar stalled below 100, the SPR drew under 350mb, and Warsh chairs his first FOMC Wednesday with the dot plot the only live variable. The barrel got cheap; the freight stayed dear.

Day 100 of the Hormuz crisis. The war got hotter and oil got cheaper. Iran and Israel traded direct missile fire for the first time since April (a Haifa apartment hit killed four), the US disabled a tanker with a Hellfire and boarded a sanctioned VLCC, and Iran hit Kuwait's airport. Yet Brent slipped to ~$94.5 and every risk asset sold off, because a blowout May jobs report (+172K vs 85K expected, +93K in revisions) flipped the regime from growth scare to hike risk. Traders fully priced a 2026 Fed hike, Polymarket no-cuts jumped to 80%, the 2y added 13bps to 4.17%, and the dollar firmed to ~99.9. Iran took no Hormuz closure action. OPEC+ added another 188kbd for July. Drewry's freight index exploded 23% to $3,433 on peak-season pull-forward. The SPR drew ~8mb to 357mb. For the first time in this crisis, the spreadsheet beat the strait.

Day 93 of the Hormuz crisis. Last week's deal optimism detonated. Trump's Thursday Situation Room meeting ended with no decision. The US and Iran traded strikes over the weekend, the US hitting radar and drone sites at Goruk and Qeshm and intercepting two Iranian ballistic missiles aimed at Kuwait. On Monday Iran formally suspended talks through mediators, blaming Israel's expanded Lebanon campaign, and resolved with the Axis of Resistance to pursue complete closure of Hormuz plus Bab al-Mandab. Brent round-tripped: down to $91 Friday on the no-deal print and soft GDP, then surged roughly 7% to $97 Monday on the collapse. Core PCE cooled to +0.2% MoM but headline held 3.8% YoY. Q1 GDP was revised down to +1.6%. The SPR drained another 9mb to 365mb, the lowest since October 2024. Drewry WCI added 3% to $2,800, a fourth straight weekly gain.

Day 86 of the Hormuz crisis. The first concrete diplomatic breakthrough since the conflict began. Trump posted May 23 that the deal is 'largely negotiated.' Axios scooped the draft terms Sunday: a 60-day MoU with Iran clearing mines, lifting Hormuz tolls, and pledging never to pursue weapons in exchange for US lifting the port blockade and sanctions waivers tied to performance. Brent cracked from $112 Monday to $97 today (-14% WoW). Kevin Warsh was sworn in at the White House on Friday, the first Fed ceremony there since Greenspan in 1987. UMich consumer sentiment final hit an all-time record low of 44.8. The SPR drained another 10mb to below 375mb, the largest weekly draw on record. FOMC minutes showed a hawkish minority floating policy firming. Drewry WCI added another 6% to $2,712. Note: Monday May 25 was Memorial Day, markets closed.

Day 79 of the Hormuz crisis. The week the inflation thesis came back. PPI April detonated at +1.4% MoM (largest since March 2022), YoY +6.0% (hottest since December 2022). CPI April core re-accelerated to +0.4% MoM. Kevin Warsh confirmed as the 17th Fed chair on a 54-45 Senate vote, the narrowest margin in modern Fed history. Powell handed off May 15 and stays as governor through the renovation probe. Markets re-priced cuts out: 10y +14bps to 4.59% Friday, 30y above 5.1%, DXY cleared 99 for the first time in five weeks. The MSV Haji Ali sank near Oman after a drone strike. Saudi and Kuwait lifted restrictions on US airspace and basing access Sunday, clearing the path for Project Freedom Plus. SPR drained another 8.6mb to roughly 384mb. Gold gave back $182. Crypto cracked: BTC −6%, ETH −10%, SOL −12% as ETF flows turned to net outflows of ~$1B. Drewry WCI surged +12% to $2,553.

Day 72 of the Hormuz crisis. Project Freedom launched Monday with 15,000 personnel and missile destroyers. By Wednesday it was paused. In 48 hours, US Navy sank ~7 IRGC speedboats, Iran hit two UAE targets with ballistic missiles, three commercial ships took fire (JV Innovation, HMM Namu, CMA CGM San Antonio), Iran formalized a Persian Gulf Strait Authority to collect tolls, and Saudi Arabia denied US airspace access. Brent spiked to $114.44 Tuesday then cracked through $100 Thursday on Trump's pause. Aramco said one billion barrels have been removed from global supply since February. The Fed-speaker chorus turned hawkish; the dollar fell anyway. Gold reclaimed the bid, copper broke back through $6, UMich consumer sentiment hit a record low of 48.2.

Day 65 of the Hormuz crisis. The UAE walked out of OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, the biggest OPEC departure since Qatar in 2019. Brent ripped to $118.03 on Wednesday, the highest print since June 2022, before fading. The FOMC delivered a hawkish hold on an 8-4 vote, the most dissents since 1992. Powell's final meeting added a Middle East risk line to the statement and upgraded inflation language. Q1 GDP missed at 2.0%, but core PCE re-accelerated to 3.2%. SPR drained 7.1 million barrels in a week. Trump announced 'Project Freedom' Sunday: 15,000 personnel and missile destroyers committed to the strait.

Day 58 of the Hormuz crisis. Trump extended the ceasefire Tuesday. By Wednesday the IRGC had seized the MSC Francesca and the Epaminondas. Three vessels were attacked over 48 hours. Goldman now describes the path as 'maritime trench warfare to a sloppy peace.' Oil bounced 7% but gold sold off and the dollar firmed for the first time in a month. The structural trade is taking a breath. FOMC decides Wednesday. Hold consensus 99.9%.

Day 51 of the Hormuz crisis. Pakistan pushed to restart talks. Xi Jinping phoned MBS urging ceasefire and normal passage. Oil cratered from $105 to the mid-$80s. Then Sunday night the USS Spruance seized the Iranian container ship Touska in the Gulf of Oman. Hormuz closed again. Tehran walked out. Gold back near highs, dollar below 98, and the economic data came in hot — Philly Fed +26.7 and Empire +11. The peace trade and the structural trade are saying different things.

Day 44 of the Hormuz crisis. The two-week ceasefire collapsed within hours. Islamabad talks failed after 21 hours. Trump announced a US naval counter-blockade. Oil whipsawed $15 in one week. CPI hit a 2-year high at 3.3%. The SPR is at its lowest since the 1980s.

Day 38 of the Hormuz blockade. A 45-day ceasefire is on the table. Trump's Tuesday deadline looms. Oil at $111, ISM Prices Paid at a 4-year high, and fuel rationing spreading globally.

The Hormuz blockade is reshaping global supply. Oil +43%, metals at record highs, currencies shifting, and crypto falling inverse. How one conflict is moving every market.