The Chokepoint Index

The Chokepoint Index is Crude Signal's daily 0-100 gauge of oil-supply risk at the world's shipping chokepoints — today, the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil moves. The higher the number, the more the market and the map are jointly pricing a disruption to that flow. It is one number, published every day, on a methodology we commit not to change quietly.

What it measures

A single chokepoint sets the floor under global energy costs, and its risk is not visible in any one number. A price can spike on a rumor and fade by lunch; a strait can be declared closed while ships still move. The Chokepoint Index combines what the market is pricing with what is happening on the map, so a headline alone cannot move it and a quiet tape alone cannot calm it. It is built to answer one question every morning: how much oil-supply risk is really live right now?

How it is built

The score is a composite of three parts, capped so no single part can carry the whole number (methodology version v2, in force since June 11, 2026):

• 0-35
  Oil-price stress. How far crude and its risk premium sit above a calm baseline. The market's own read on scarcity.
• 0-45
  Kinetic tempo. The intensity of strikes, attacks on shipping, and closure events on the daily wire. The map's read on escalation.
• 0-20
  Structural state. The strait's categorical condition on our five-step ladder, from open to closed.

The strait's status also floors the score, so the number can never drift below what the situation on the water justifies: a stand-down with talks floors it at 65, a contested ceasefire at 72, and a full, confirmed closure at 85. That floor is why a declared-but-disputed closure reads high without being pinned at 100 — a declaration is disruption, not a verified halt.

How to read it

The five bands map one-to-one to the strait status ladder we publish on the live answer page:

The commitment

An index is only useful if it means the same thing this month as last. So the methodology is versioned and dated: the current version is v2 (June 11, 2026), and any future change gets a new version number and a dated note here, never a silent edit. We do not retune the score to flatter a call or to chase a headline. When we grade our own forecasts each week — misses included, on the public record — the Chokepoint Index is one of the things we grade against, which is the strongest reason we have not to move the goalposts.

Use it

The full daily history is free and citable (CC BY 4.0) on Open Data, alongside the graded forecast record and the sourced event log. A live badge and an embeddable widget are on the embed kit. The real-time reading, the wire behind it, and the charts live on the Hormuz desk.

Suggested citation: Crude Signal (2026). The Chokepoint Index (methodology v2). https://crudesignal.io/chokepoint-index (accessed September 2, 2026).

The Chokepoint Index is an editorial risk gauge, not investment advice. Methodology v2, in force since June 11, 2026. Underlying market and event inputs derive from public sources; the score itself is Crude Signal's.