About

Crude Signal turns geopolitical noise into a structured weekly read. We cover the inputs that move supply chains before the headline catches up: oil, freight, macro, and kinetic risk.

Every Monday. Free.

The instrument

Every Monday the week’s tape gets distilled into a handful of specific, falsifiable calls, plus a live dashboard tracking the Strait of Hormuz crisis. How the calls get built is our business. Whether they were right is yours: a call that can’t be graded doesn’t run, and every grade is public.

The grading contract

Every forward-looking call is logged, graded the following Monday, and published. Misses appear in the same type size as wins. Published issues are never edited; grades are never retroactively changed. The full ledger, including the by-type breakdown of where we’re sharp and where we’ve been wrong, is on the track record.

The analyst

Cross Mercer covers the point where markets and conflict intersect. The method is the credential: every number sourced, every call on the ledger.

What this is not

Investment advice. Data marked EST is estimated from public sources. Verify independently before acting on anything here; Crude Signal assumes no liability for decisions made on this content.