Is the Strait of Hormuz Open?
As of July 3, 2026 (Day 125), the Strait of Hormuz is contested: open but contested to commercial shipping under a fragile US-Iran stand-down, with indirect talks under way. Traffic runs at roughly ~35-70/day, down from a pre-crisis norm of about 94 vessels a day. Around 20 percent of the world's seaborne oil moves through this 21-mile chokepoint, so its status moves crude prices worldwide.
What "contested" means
Crude Signal rates the strait on a five-step ladder, from the daily news wire, oil prices, and shipping signals rather than a single headline. It is currently Contested: Passable but under threat: a fragile or partial ceasefire, reduced and reversible flow, an armed standoff.
- Open Normal commercial flow, roughly 94 vessels a day, no material war-risk premium.
- Strained Traffic continues but insurers and owners price in elevated risk; some reroute.
- Contested Passable but under threat: a fragile or partial ceasefire, reduced and reversible flow, an armed standoff. ← now
- Disrupted A material share of traffic halted by attacks, mining, or sustained closure of part of the channel.
- Closed No meaningful commercial transit; the chokepoint is shut by blockade, mining, or declared closure.
How the strait reached this point
The crisis began with a blockade on February 28, 2026. Tension escalated into a full closure on June 10, when Iran shut the strait and struck US bases in the Gulf and Brent spiked toward triple digits. A US-Iran memorandum reopened the waterway at a trickle from June 19. That reopening then broke down: between June 26 and 28 a kinetic exchange hit the strait, with US-Iran strikes, two commercial ships struck, and IRGC missiles fired at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. A fragile stand-down took hold on June 28 and has held since, with indirect US-Iran talks running through Doha mediators and traffic recovering under a widened southern corridor. The strait remains armed and reversible, which is why the verdict is contested rather than open.
What would change the verdict
It moves to disrupted or closed if Iran mines the channel, attacks on shipping resume at scale, or a formal closure is declared. It eases back toward strained or open if the ceasefire holds, war-risk insurance premiums normalise, and throughput climbs back toward the ~94 vessels-a-day norm. We track those tripwires live on the Hormuz desk.
Why the Strait of Hormuz matters
About 20 percent of the world's oil and roughly a quarter of seaborne crude pass through a 21-mile chokepoint with no realistic bypass for most Gulf exporters. There is no pipeline network that can absorb the volume if it closes, so any closure or credible threat raises oil prices worldwide. That is why a single waterway off the coast of Iran sets the floor under global energy costs, and why its open-or-closed status is worth watching daily.
Strait of Hormuz: common questions
Is the Strait of Hormuz open today?
As of July 3, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz is open but contested, with traffic at ~35-70/day versus a pre-crisis norm of about 94 vessels per day, under a fragile US-Iran stand-down with indirect talks under way.
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz per day?
Roughly 35 to 70 per day and volatile, recovering from the June closure but still well below a pre-crisis norm of about 94. AIS-visible trackers count fewer because some vessels run dark. Roughly 20 percent of global oil passes through the strait.
How long has the Strait of Hormuz crisis lasted?
Day 125, dating from the blockade that began February 28, 2026.
Why does the Strait of Hormuz affect oil prices?
About 20 percent of the world's oil and a quarter of seaborne crude pass through a 21-mile chokepoint with no realistic bypass for most Gulf exporters, so any closure or threat raises prices worldwide.