Open Data
Crude Signal's datasets from the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, free to download and reuse with credit (CC BY 4.0). The piece you will not find elsewhere: a forecasting-performance record — every market call we published, its falsifiable condition, its public grade, and (from week 25) the probability we put on it before the outcome was known. Misses included; grades are never edited after publication.
Structure: full history is public and stays public. The trailing 30 days of the crisis-score
and event-log datasets are subscriber early access — subscribe free on the homepage, enter the
welcome-note password at /markets/login, and pull
/data/open/current.json. The graded-calls record is always fully public, current included.
Crisis score, daily
Daily Hormuz crisis score (0-100) with Brent, WTI, and spread. score_method column marks the composite version. Public file carries history older than 30 days; the trailing 30 days are subscriber early access.
Graded calls (forecasting performance)
Every published the desk market call with its falsifiable condition, outcome grade, and (from W25) pre-registered probability. Grades are never edited after publication.
Sourced event log
De-duplicated wire reports from the 2026 Hormuz crisis, each linked to its original outlet. Coverage from 2026-04-01. Public file carries history older than 30 days; the trailing 30 days are subscriber early access.
Methodology, briefly
The Chokepoint Index (0-100), our daily crisis score, is a composite of
oil price stress, kinetic tempo from the news wire, and the strait's categorical state; the score_method
column marks the composite version (v2 from June 11, 2026). Full methodology, bands, and our no-quiet-changes commitment
live on the index page.
Calls are published in the Monday briefing with an exact threshold, deadline, and pre-registered
resolution source, then graded against it — condition and consequence separately. The event log is
the de-duplicated record of our continuously archived wire, each entry linked to the outlet that carried it; coverage
begins April 1, 2026. Full grading history renders at /track-record.
Margin Quote API
The same pure engine behind the margin card is callable as JSON: send a recipe of live-priced inputs and get the full cost buildup and true margin back — coverage, drift and its driver, the crisis stress with its historical date, and (with a target) the suggested price. Free, no key, CORS-open; figures refresh with each data deploy. Fair use; not advice.
POST https://crudesignal.io/api/margin/quote
Content-Type: application/json
{"q": {"cheese": 0.75, "wheat": 0.0127, "natgas": 0.012},
"fixed": 4.60, "price": 16, "m_target": 63.0,
"basis": {"cheese": 1.18}}
basis is optional: paid ÷ market per input = your landed costs.
Response: breakdown with unit_cost, margin, per-line costs,
drift + driver, war_margin + stress_date,
suggested_price, coverage, and dropped (inputs without a live feed —
never silently priced). feeds lists every input id the engine can price.
A shared margin-card link works directly too: GET /api/margin/quote?card=<payload>.
How to cite
Crude Signal (2026). Crude Signal Open Data: 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis scores, graded forecasts, and sourced event log. https://crudesignal.io/data (accessed September 2, 2026).
BibTeX
@misc{crudesignal2026,
author = {{Crude Signal}},
title = {Crude Signal Open Data: 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis scores, graded forecasts, and sourced event log},
year = {2026},
url = {https://crudesignal.io/data},
note = {License: CC BY 4.0}
}If you use these datasets in reporting or research, a link back to crudesignal.io is the whole ask. For live embeddables — status badges and an iframe widget that update automatically — see the embed kit. Questions or corrections: see about.