Open Data
Crude Signal's datasets from the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, free to download and reuse with credit (CC BY 4.0). The piece you will not find elsewhere: a forecasting-performance record — every market call we published, its falsifiable condition, its public grade, and (from week 25) the probability we put on it before the outcome was known. Misses included; grades are never edited after publication.
Crisis score, daily
Daily Hormuz crisis score (0-100) with Brent, WTI, and spread. score_method column marks the composite version.
Graded calls (forecasting performance)
Every published Crude Signal market call with its falsifiable condition, outcome grade, and (from W25) pre-registered probability. Grades are never edited after publication.
Sourced event log
De-duplicated wire reports from the 2026 Hormuz crisis, each linked to its original outlet. Coverage from 2026-04-01.
Methodology, briefly
The crisis score (0-100) is a composite of oil price stress, kinetic tempo from the news wire, and the
strait's categorical state; the score_method column marks the composite version (v2 from June 11, 2026).
Calls are published in the Monday briefing with an exact threshold, deadline, and pre-registered
resolution source, then graded against it — condition and consequence separately. The event log is
the de-duplicated record of our continuously archived wire, each entry linked to the outlet that carried it; coverage
begins April 1, 2026. Full grading history renders at /track-record.
How to cite
Crude Signal (2026). Crude Signal Open Data: 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis scores, graded forecasts, and sourced event log. https://crudesignal.io/data (accessed July 3, 2026).
BibTeX
@misc{crudesignal2026,
author = {{Crude Signal}},
title = {Crude Signal Open Data: 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis scores, graded forecasts, and sourced event log},
year = {2026},
url = {https://crudesignal.io/data},
note = {License: CC BY 4.0}
}If you use these datasets in reporting or research, a link back to crudesignal.io is the whole ask. Questions or corrections: see about.