THE MIAMI DESK

A port-and-tourism economy at the end of a long supply chain: nearly everything arrives by ship or truck, and the grid runs on gas.

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WHY MIAMI FEELS IT FIRST Florida has no in-state refineries: nearly all its fuel arrives by ship, and Port Everglades alone is the entry point for a large share of the state's supply. A Gulf or Hormuz disruption reaches South Florida pumps, job sites, and delivery routes with only a short lag — there is no local production to cushion it.

STORM WATCH · NOAA NHC

TD Edouard · 30 kt · moving 335 at 5 kt · 2026-09-02T09:00:00.000Z

HU Karina · 125 kt · moving 280 at 12 kt · 2026-09-02T09:00:00.000Z

TS Marie · 55 kt · moving 310 at 10 kt · 2026-09-02T09:00:00.000Z

HU Lowell · 125 kt · moving 270 at 12 kt · 2026-09-02T09:00:00.000Z

Construction & real estate

The high-rise and rebuild pipeline prices lumber, rebar, wire, and curtain wall by the job — bids carry these prints directly.
Hurricane season (June–November) turns lumber and fuel into demand-spike goods on short notice.
Materials arrive through the ports; diesel moves every yard of it inland.

Lumber 563 -6.3% month war spike +9.8% Steel (US HRC) 1,212 +1.8% month war spike +3% Copper 6.543 -1.1% month war spike -11% Aluminum 3,436.5 +1.6% month war spike +13.8% ULSD diesel 4.464 +18.4% month war spike +72.5%

Marine, ports & logistics

PortMiami and Port Everglades are the gateway to the Caribbean and Latin America; drayage and reefer trucking run on diesel.
Fishing and charter fleets buy marine diesel at retail-plus — the wholesale move reaches the dock with a markup, and fuel surcharges on freight reprice with a lag.

ULSD diesel 4.464 +18.4% month war spike +72.5% RBOB gasoline 3.128 +9.7% month war spike +61.3%

Aviation & tourism

Jet fuel is a distillate — the ULSD print is the closest public proxy for what airlift into MIA and FLL costs.
Fuel surcharges and fare pressure follow distillate with a lag; tourism volume feels it second.

ULSD diesel 4.464 +18.4% month war spike +72.5%

Food & beverage trade

Miami is a major entry point for Latin American coffee and produce; import desks price against these boards.
Restaurant kitchens ride natural gas; menu costs carry flour and sugar with a distributor lag.

Coffee 302.5 -6.7% month war spike +11.7% Sugar #11 18.2 +21% month war spike +11% Wheat (SRW) 769.25 +20.5% month war spike +4.6% Corn 537.75 +21.6% month war spike +7.1% Henry Hub natgas 2.949 +10% month war spike +13.1%

Power & cooling

Florida's grid is heavily gas-fired; air-conditioning load makes summer power bills a natural-gas story.

Henry Hub natgas 2.949 +10% month war spike +13.1%

Hurricane-season seasonality is real and local: fuel, plywood, and generator demand spike on watches and warnings — plan inventory before the cone shows up.

First-order border-price exposure: the country's net oil position re-priced at the Brent move, nothing else. It is not a realized import bill or fiscal forecast — it excludes term-contract lags, benchmark differentials (Dubai/Oman, WTI), hedging, product mix, and subsidies. An exact answer to one defined question. "War spike" = each board's peak response inside Feb 27 – Mar 31, 2026 (Brent +63%), from our archived daily closes — what happened during those dates, not a causal claim. Boards are futures/hub basis; landed local prices add freight, taxes, and margin.

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