The Hormuz blockade enters its 38th day with the world watching a single deadline: Tuesday, April 8 at 8 PM ET. Trump has threatened to destroy "every power plant" in Iran if the strait doesn't reopen. A Pakistan-brokered 45-day ceasefire is on the table. Iran is demanding permanent terms. The outcome of the next 48 hours will define energy markets for the rest of the year.
would trigger reversal
+ smelter damage
Unusual weakness
$1,500–4,000/box
This week's defining variable: Trump's April 8 deadline. Ceasefire = rapid price reversal in oil and crypto. Escalation = supply cliff accelerates.
| Material | Price | 8-Week Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $111/bbl | +74% | Hormuz blockade, near 52-wk high |
| Brent Crude | $111.25/bbl | +65% | Spread collapsed to near-parity |
| Diesel | $5.40/gal | +40% | Highest since Jul 2022 |
| Gasoline | $4.02/gal | +31% | Crossed $4 for first time since 2022 |
| Natural Gas | $2.82/MMBtu | −9% | Shoulder season selling |
| Gold | $4,672/oz | −6% | Selling to cover losses elsewhere |
| Copper | $5.44/lb | +12% | Supply disruption + AI demand |
| Aluminum | ~$2.50/lb | +36% | LME + MW premium, 50% tariff floor |
| Steel (CRC) | ~$1,070/s.ton | +98% | 50% tariff + domestic demand |
| Dollar (DXY) | 99.81 | −0.7% | Below 100, unusual weakness |
| Mex. Peso | 17.87/USD | +0.3% | Recovering from 18.15 low |
| British Pound | $1.3235 | +4.4% | Near 2026 highs on USD weakness |
| Container Freight | $2,287/40ft | −10% | WCI dipped, but surcharges mask true cost |
| Trucking | $2.47/mile | +23% YoY | Spot-contract spread: just 11¢ |
| Bitcoin | ~$69,400 | +4.6% | Ceasefire bid, inverse oil |
| Ethereum | ~$2,150 | +6.4% | Strongest weekly gain in a month |
| Solana | ~$82 | +1.9% | Lagging BTC/ETH |
The pattern from Week 13 has intensified. Oil, diesel, and copper are still surging from the same trigger. But the dollar has broken below 100, a new development that amplifies import costs globally. Crypto is recovering on ceasefire hopes, diverging from the inverse pattern for the first time in weeks.
New this week: Bitcoin has broken its inverse correlation with oil for the first time since the conflict began. BTC rose 4.6% on ceasefire hopes while oil held above $111. If the ceasefire fails Tuesday night, expect BTC to snap back down and oil to surge toward Goldman's $150 scenario. The dollar dropping below 100 is the other shift: it makes oil imports even more expensive for non-USD countries, amplifying the inflationary hit globally.
Sorted by magnitude. Red = prices higher. Green = prices lower.
What happened: Oil surged from $102.85 (Week 13) to $111 as the blockade persisted through its 38th day. Brent briefly touched $114 on April 3 before pulling back slightly on ceasefire reports. The OPEC+ decision to raise quotas by 206,000 barrels/day for May was a non-event: it covers roughly 1% of the ~20 million barrels/day removed by the blockade.
The supply cliff is here. Goldman Sachs has labeled this the largest oil supply shock in history, surpassing the 1973 embargo. The IEA's 400 million barrel emergency release continues, but the DOE issued a new RFP for an additional 10 million barrel exchange on April 1, a sign that reserves are depleting faster than planned. Fuel rationing has begun in parts of Europe, Southeast Asia, and South Asia.
What to watch: If Trump's April 8 deadline passes without a deal, Goldman's scenario analysis moves from $115 base case to the $150–200 range if the blockade extends to June. If the 45-day ceasefire holds, expect oil to drop sharply. The March 9 "war complete" declaration crashed Brent from $116 to $85 in one session.
Aluminum: The Midwest premium has moderated from its January record of $1.01/lb to ~$0.93/lb, but the all-in US delivered cost remains ~$2.50/lb. The March 28 Gulf smelter attacks removed ~3.2 million tons/year of capacity. With 50% tariffs now codified, there is no scenario where US aluminum gets cheaper without a tariff rollback.
Copper is up to $5.44/lb on AI data center demand and supply disruptions, though it has pulled back from January's $6.50 peak on rising inventories. Steel CRC has nearly doubled to ~$1,070/short ton, driven entirely by tariff protection (global CRC is ~$460/ton out of China). Gold continues to slide (−6% over 8 weeks) as investors sell to cover losses in other positions.
What changed: The DXY has dropped below 100, a psychologically significant level. Two weeks ago the dollar was steady at 100.54 on safe-haven demand. Now it's weakening despite the crisis, suggesting markets are pricing in long-term damage to the US economy from the blockade and tariffs combined. The strong March jobs report (+178K) briefly pushed DXY above 100, but it faded.
Why this matters for supply chains: A weaker dollar makes US exports cheaper but makes all dollar-denominated commodities (oil, metals, freight) relatively more expensive for everyone else. For US importers, it's a wash: commodity prices are up, but the dollar's purchasing power against trading partners is slightly stronger. For the rest of the world, a weak dollar plus $111 oil is a double hit.
Peso recovered from its 18.15 low to 17.87 as ceasefire hopes emerged. Pound strengthened to $1.3235, benefiting from USD weakness rather than UK strength.
What happened: The Drewry WCI headline number dropped 10% this week to $2,287/40ft, but that masks the real cost. War risk surcharges of $1,500–$4,000/container are layered on top. Shanghai-to-New York routes are still at $3,434/40ft. Only 20 vessels transited Hormuz on April 5, the highest single day since the conflict, but still 1/7th of the pre-war average of 138/day.
Trucking: Diesel at $5.40/gallon continues to push domestic freight costs. Spot rates have risen 23% year-over-year to $2.47/mile. The real story is the narrowing gap between spot and contract: when that gap closes, contract renewals reset higher.
What happened: Reports of the Pakistan-brokered 45-day ceasefire framework on April 6 immediately bid BTC and ETH higher. $305 million in short positions were liquidated. CoinDesk noted Bitcoin had entered April "at its most hated level since the war began" before the reversal. The Fear index sits at 29, still firmly in fear territory.
What to watch: If Trump's April 8 deadline triggers escalation, expect a sharp crypto selloff. The March 9 precedent (Trump declared war "complete," BTC jumped above $70K) will reverse. If the ceasefire holds, BTC has room to rally toward $75K as the risk premium unwinds. SEC CLARITY Act roundtable on April 16 could move sentiment on the regulatory front.
View the live Hormuz tracker → Real-time vessel traffic, crisis metrics, and full timeline.
What happened since Week 13:
- Trump deadline: Apr 8, 8 PM ET. Ceasefire or escalation, no middle ground
- 45-day ceasefire in play. Pakistan-brokered, but Iran rejecting temporary terms
- Supply cliff is here. IEA reserves depleting faster than planned; DOE issuing new RFPs
- Houthis widening conflict. Two ships sunk, missile attacks on Israel
- 50% metals tariffs now codified. Steel, aluminum, copper: permanent floor
- 100% pharma tariff (120–180 day implementation, EU/Japan/Korea: 15%)
- Iran oil waiver expires Apr 19. No renewal signals found
- Trump-Xi summit: China tariffs held at 47%, suspension extended to Nov 2026