The Iran-Hormuz blockade has triggered the largest oil supply disruption in modern history, and the shockwave is hitting every market. Oil, metals, and freight are at or near 52-week highs. Currencies are shifting. Crypto is falling inverse. Here's what you need to know.
smelter attacks
Peso, pound shifting
+150% since blockade
Leading indicators (oil, crypto, VIX, currencies) move first. Lagging (metals, freight) follow in 2–4 weeks.
| Material | Price | 8-Week Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $102.85/bbl | +43% | Hormuz blockade |
| Brent Crude | $115.35/bbl | +38% | Spread at $12.50 (crisis) |
| Diesel | $5.37/gal | +40% | Highest since Jul 2022 |
| Natural Gas | $3.10/MMBtu | +8% | Energy input |
| Gold | $4,557/oz | −3% | Safe haven selling |
| Copper | $4.85/lb | +8% | Supply disruption + demand |
| Aluminum | ~$2.50/lb | +36% | LME + MW premium, record |
| Steel (CRC) | ~$540/s.ton | −4% | Only metal easing |
| Dollar (DXY) | 100.54 | +0.2% | Safe haven demand |
| Mex. Peso | 17.82/USD | −2.1% | Weakening on oil volatility |
| British Pound | $1.268 | −1.4% | Risk-off pressure |
| Container Freight | $2,279/40ft | +19% | Cape rerouting |
| Trucking | $2.47/mile | +2.5% | 7th monthly gain |
| Bitcoin | ~$67,700 | −14% | Inverse oil correlation |
| Ethereum | ~$2,071 | −9% | Inverse oil correlation |
This chart shows how the Hormuz blockade is rippling across every market. Energy, metals, freight, and crypto all moving from the same trigger. Solid lines surge upward (oil, diesel, aluminum, copper, freight). Dashed lines fall (crypto, currencies). When the lines diverge at the conflict marker, that's the blockade reshaping prices in real time.
The key takeaway: Oil, diesel, aluminum, copper, and freight are all moving in lockstep, driven by the Hormuz blockade. Freight (+19%) lags oil slightly because rerouting takes time. Crypto moves in the opposite direction. The dollar is steady on safe-haven demand while the peso and pound weaken. If the blockade ends, the top lines drop and the bottom lines rebound.
Sorted by magnitude. Red = rising. Green = falling.
What happened: The Hormuz blockade has removed roughly 20 million barrels per day from global oil supply since February 28. Only 21 tankers have passed through the strait since then, compared to 100+ per day before the conflict. The IEA released 400 million barrels from emergency reserves in response.
Why it matters for the supply chain: Oil is the upstream input for almost everything. Diesel, the fuel that moves freight, has surged to $5.37/gallon, up 40% in 8 weeks and the highest since July 2022. Every mile of trucking and every container shipped just got significantly more expensive. Gasoline is up $1.02 this month alone.
What to watch: Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Macquarie have flagged a mid-April supply cliff, the point where emergency reserves run out if the blockade continues. That's roughly 14 days away. If it hits, expect another sharp move upward in oil and everything connected to it.
What happened: Aluminum is the headline. The 50% tariff (raised from 25% in June 2025) created a permanent price floor. Then on March 28, precision strikes hit major Gulf smelters producing ~3.2 million tons/year. LME spiked 5.5% to $3,492/MT. All-in US cost is now ~$2.50/lb.
Copper is up 8% as supply disruptions ripple beyond oil. Gold fell 3% despite the crisis, as investors sold positions to cover losses elsewhere. Steel is the one metal easing, at $540/short ton.
What happened: The US dollar is benefiting from safe-haven demand, holding steady at 100.54 on the DXY index. Meanwhile, emerging market and commodity-linked currencies are weakening. The Mexican peso dropped 2.1% as oil volatility increases uncertainty for Mexico's oil-dependent economy. The British pound fell 1.4% on broader risk-off sentiment across European markets.
Why currencies matter here: Oil is priced in dollars. A strong dollar makes oil imports more expensive for every other country, amplifying the inflationary impact of the Hormuz blockade beyond what the barrel price alone suggests.
What happened: Container shipping rates have surged 19% since the blockade began, hitting $2,279/40ft container. On top of base rate increases, carriers are imposing war risk surcharges of $1,500–$4,000 per container. Total cost increases on affected routes range from 125–180%.
Trucking: US domestic van rates have risen for 7 consecutive months, now at $2.47/mile (up 23% year-over-year). Diesel at $5.37/gallon is the primary driver. Every cent per gallon adds cost to every mile of freight in the supply chain.
Why crypto is in this report: Crypto markets trade 24/7, including weekends when traditional markets are closed. During the first weekend of the conflict, crypto was the only market pricing the news in real time, making it a leading indicator of how traditional markets would react on Monday. February 2026 saw $3.8 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows, the worst month since spot ETFs launched.
The pattern: Bitcoin (−14%) and Ethereum (−9%) have been relatively resilient. Bloomberg called BTC an "oasis of calm" compared to equities by mid-March. Solana (−22%) fell harder, consistent with its higher volatility. When Trump briefly declared the war "complete" on March 9, BTC jumped back above $70K as oil crashed from $116 to $85, confirming the inverse link.
View the live Hormuz tracker → Real-time vessel traffic, crisis metrics, and full timeline.
Timeline of key events:
- Hormuz blockade, Day 31. Near-total closure since Feb 28
- Conflict widening. Houthis entered Mar 28, US ground forces arriving
- Supply cliff ~14 days. Emergency reserves exhausted mid-April
- Trump-Xi summit starts tomorrow. Limited tariff relief expected
- Section 301 investigations targeting 16+ economies for trade violations
- 50% tariffs on steel & aluminum remain active, no rollback
- Iran oil sanction waiver expires ~April 20. Non-renewal adds pressure