Tag: currencies
All the articles with the tag "currencies".
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Week 43: Brent $109.36, Three Counts of One Strait
December Brent $109.36, +2.5% on the week, in a strait nobody can count: UKMTO logs 254 transits and can see 42; Central Command says 400. A container ship sunk, a VLCC disabled, CPI at 3.7%, a Russian diesel deal bought with a sanctions waiver. W42 calls graded 3 of 5 priced; six new calls with pre-registered odds. Hormuz day 233.
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Week 42: No Strike Before the Vote, Strikes Every Day
Day 226 of the Hormuz crisis. Trump says no US attack on Iran before the November 3 midterms; twenty vessels struck in under two weeks, three this weekend; a Houthi strike on Riyadh's airport. Brent crude price today: December Brent $106.69, +6.3% on the week. Russian diesel returns under a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and the crack gives back $8. WASDE adds 282 million bushels to corn stocks. W41 priced calls five for five, the flagship open until Tuesday. Price table, seven material families, the risk map and six new calls inside.
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Week 41: Strike Options, Dark Transits
Day 222 of the Hormuz crisis. Brent crude price today: December Brent $103.68, +3.5% in a day after The Atlantic reported the White House asked the Pentagon for Iran strike options before the midterms. Twelve tanker strikes in a week, the war's worst; Kpler counted 7 transits on Tuesday, the fewest since July. Payrolls +29,000 and October hike odds fall toward 20%. W40 graded five of six; the flagship lost on a published zero, corrected in print. Price table, seven material families, the risk map and six new calls inside.
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Week 40: No Deal, Dearer Money
Day 212 of the Hormuz crisis. Iran put the war's first written roadmap on the table after three hours of direct talks in New York, and Trump rejected it twice. The expiring Brent contract squeezed $7.46 over December into Wednesday's expiry; October rate-hike odds hit 72%; gold fell 8% in a month and 3.5% in a day. Diesel unwound 7.9% as the Saudi bypass and the Joliet refinery came back. W39 graded four of six, two losses by cents and by a breakout. Price table, seven material families, the risk map and six new calls inside.
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Week 39: The Fed Hikes Into a War
Day 205 of the Hormuz crisis. The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, 12-0, with Brent above $100 and the ten-year at 5.04%: energy costs set by a chokepoint, money costs set by a hawk. Brent fell from $108.75 to $103.87 as UN week opened, and the 7% drop on Monday's charts was a contract roll, not a crash. Coffee is down 18.9% in a month, cocoa 10.2% in a week, lumber at its lowest since January; gasoline jumped 6.7% on a flooded Illinois refinery. W38 graded five of five. Price table, seven material families, the risk map and six new calls inside.
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Week 38: One Hundred, Twice
Day 198 of the Hormuz crisis. Two instruments crossed a hundred dollars in the same week: Brent broke $107 on Thursday's 6.3% surge — the sharpest session since July — and the diesel crack itself settled above $100 for three straight days, capping a 45.7% three-month run in the fuel that moves everything. Gold fell through all of it: a war-spike week where the safe-haven traded the Fed instead is the regime, stated plainly. W37's grading, the movers board, three-horizon price table, seven material families and the risk map inside. W37 graded four of five: the flagship held a ninth week on counts that thinned to 7 a day but never zero, and the Brent band took the desk's first conditional loss since its architecture changed — broken by an attack wave, not a halt.
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Week 37: The Coffee Break
Day 192 of the Hormuz crisis. Coffee broke 6.2% on the week — the softest print on a board where crude ground to $97 and the war found the freight market directly. The W36 short board graded FIVE FOR FIVE — the third consecutive perfect board; the all-time ledger reads 49 right, 28 wrong, and the calibration curve — gated behind its own 50-call promise since August 10 — unlocks with this grading. Brent grinds at $97; gold chops under its ceiling; the strait stays thin, dark, and never zero.
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Week 36: The Short Board
Day 186 of the Hormuz crisis. W35 graded five for five — a second straight perfect board; the record is 44-28. The war re-escalated into direct US-Iran exchange: fresh American airstrikes, two supertankers attacked, two seafarers killed, transit counts down to four a day. Brent ran 8.7% in three sessions; gold broke the level our floor defended, two sessions after the window closed. The calibration curve unlocks when this board resolves Friday.