Week 43: Brent $109.36, Three Counts of One Strait

Weekly Briefing · Week 43 · Hormuz Crisis Day 233

Three Counts of One Strait · Central Command says 400 ships a week, the UK says 254 and can see 42 of them, the tape says $110

The week's most important number is that nobody agrees on the number. UKMTO counted 254 transits in the seven days to October 14, about 70% below pre-war, and could see 42 of them on AIS; Central Command says about 400 ships transited. In the same week a container ship was hit and sank, a VLCC lost power to an engine-room fire, and the IRGC claimed two tankers struck mines nobody else can find. December Brent settled 109.36 today, +2.5% on the week, with a 3.7% CPI and a Russian diesel deal pulling opposite ways.

Transits UKMTO could see on AIS out of the 254 it counted in the week to October 14; the other 212 are US-reported escorted passages it says it cannot verify. Ships are crossing dark, under escort, on the Iranian northern route or the Omani southern corridor, and UKMTO says most of the ones that get hit never report it. That is the operating condition this board is priced on: traffic that moves but cannot be counted, in a strait Iran's army chief said on Thursday "stays closed."

The Week In Four Dials

Oil

↑

prices higher · Dec Brent 109.36, +2.5% on the week · the largest US crude draw since February

Diesel

↓

the crack 96.62 · Russian diesel bought with a sanctions waiver · IEA puts 20 million barrels of diesel into the release

Money

↑

dearer · CPI 3.7%, PPI 6.3% · a December hike priced near 90%

The strait

↓

disrupted, attacks at a war high · a ship sunk, a VLCC disabled · week fifteen

Contract basis this week. Energy rows are quoted on December Brent, December WTI (the November contract expires Tuesday, so it is not quoted), and the November diesel, gasoline and gas contracts, at both ends of every column. The table's anchor is the Monday October 19 settle at 14:30 ET, and the week runs from the Monday October 12 prints. December Brent expires October 30 and November Henry Hub October 28, both outside this board's window.

The Week's Movers

Cost pressure · up on the week

Coffee+8.0%

no sourced driver3mo +1.4%

Steel HRC+7.1%

no sourced driver this week3mo +18.3%

WTI crude+6.0%

December contract; the November expires Tuesday. An 8.6 million barrel draw against a 300,000 consensus3mo +26.4%

ULSD diesel+3.8%

the crack held above $100 for two sessions, then the Russia waiver and the IEA diesel release capped it3mo +32.5%

Relief · down on the week

Lumber-3.4%

the 10-year touched 5.3% on CPI day; no sourced driver beyond rates3mo -19.3%

Corn-3.4%

the October 9 report lifted the carryout well above expectations; no fresh driver3mo -1.3%

RBOB gasoline-3.4%

gasoline up 9.1% in September's CPI; the futures gave some back as the crude rally went to diesel3mo +16.7%

Henry Hub natgas-3.3%

shoulder season; a storage build and warm forecasts; the November contract expires October 283mo -0.4%

Week 42 Board · Graded Against Sources Fixed At Its Window

Right

of 5 priced · band, gas, spread

Wrong

gold by 20 cents · crack on day one

Open

the flagship, cutoff Tuesday

W42 Board · Resolved on the four settles of October 13-16, flagship October 20

PENDING

"The first Kpler weekly Hormuz crude-flow figure Reuters or Bloomberg report for a week ending October 14-18 is between 5.0 and 12.0 million barrels a day, with no halt or mine notice and no zero day." Resolves Tuesday October 20 at 23:59 ET, by its own text, on the first Kpler weekly Hormuz crude-flow figure Reuters or Bloomberg print for a week ending October 14-18. The only Kpler weekly figure in print, a Reuters line citing Gulf crude flows at about 8.5 million barrels a day "last week," names the Gulf rather than the strait and no end date, and on a strict reading does not qualify. No UKMTO, JMIC or Central Command halt or mine notice was issued October 13-16. If nothing qualifying prints by the cutoff, the call grades unresolved and the pre-named PortWatch swap takes effect for the W43 flagship (call 1 below).

was 75%

RIGHT

"IF no verified halt, THEN December Brent settles inside $102-112 every session." ICE Dec Brent settles 105.67, 106.11, 105.88, 109.88 against $102-112; closest approach $2.12 (Fri Oct 16, 109.88 vs the 112 ceiling).

was 55%

WRONG

"December gold settles above $4,110 every session." COMEX Dec gold settles 4,178.30, 4,109.80, 4,171.50, 4,182.20 against the $4,110 floor; Wednesday Oct 14 (CPI day) printed 4,109.80 at the 13:30 ET settle, $0.20 under the bar. One settle under, the call is wrong; Thursday and Friday recovered to 4,171.50 and 4,182.20.

was 65%

RIGHT

"November Henry Hub settles below $3.45 every session." NYMEX Nov Henry Hub settles 3.287, 3.200, 3.236, 3.121 against the $3.45 ceiling; high settle 3.287 Tuesday, $0.163 of room.

was 90%

WRONG

"The distillate crack settles below $100 every session." Crack (Nov ULSD x42 minus Dec Brent, same-day settles) 101.64, 100.56, 97.02, 96.03 against the $100 ceiling; broke on the first settle, Tuesday Oct 13 at 101.64 (ULSD 4.9360 x42 = 207.31 minus Brent 105.67), and again Wednesday at 100.56; Thursday and Friday fell back under 98.

was 65%

RIGHT

"December minus February Brent holds above $4.50 on every settle." Dec minus Feb Brent 5.09, 5.24, 5.35, 5.88 against the $4.50 floor; widened to 5.88 Friday as the front rallied $4. Low 5.09 Tuesday (Feb leg from the daily bar, thin contract).

was 70%

Calibration: Two bars broke on the first or second settle: the gold floor, raised $35 into a CPI week, lost by 20 cents on CPI day; the crack ceiling at $100 printed 101.64 the next afternoon. The W41 flagship graded unresolved at its October 13 cutoff: no Reuters or Bloomberg report carried a Kpler daily count for October 9-12. This week's bars sit a full CPI-day move from the settle, every slot carries a gap discount, and no single headline can break more than two calls. Record: 75 right, 34 wrong, 13 partial; two flagships open or unresolved on cutoffs set in advance.

Price Reference Table · Three Horizons

Settles at the Monday anchor, with the move over one week, one month and three months. Every number here is from the same prints that priced the board below.

Instrument	Settle	w/w	m/m	3mo
Brent crude	109.36 $/bbl	+2.5%	+10.1%	+31.1%
WTI crude	98.39 $/bbl	+6.0%	+6.9%	+26.4%
ULSD diesel	4.90 $/gal	+3.8%	+1.2%	+32.5%
RBOB gasoline	3.18 $/gal	-3.4%	-2.3%	+16.7%
Henry Hub natgas	3.06 $/MMBtu	-3.3%	+0.6%	-0.4%
Gold	4,163.60 $/oz	-0.6%	-5.9%	+2.2%
Copper	6.59 $/lb	-2.3%	-1.5%	+2.5%
Steel HRC	1,365.00 $/t	+7.1%	+10.3%	+18.3%
Aluminum	3,115.25 $/t	-0.6%	-9.6%	-11.8%
Lumber	521.00 $/MBF	-3.4%	-3.0%	-19.3%
Wheat	656.00 c/bu	-2.4%	-8.2%	-5.1%
Corn	466.75 c/bu	-3.4%	-11.5%	-1.3%
Soybeans	1,253.00 c/bu	-2.7%	-3.9%	+2.2%
Cotton	80.14 c/lb	-0.6%	-1.2%	+1.5%
Coffee	313.75 c/lb	+8.0%	+11.9%	+1.4%
Sugar #11	20.59 c/lb	-1.2%	+12.9%	+31.0%
Cocoa	5,695.00 $/t	+0.3%	+6.9%	+0.4%
US dollar index	101.98	-0.6%	+1.8%	+1.0%

The week column is the strait against the waiver: Brent +2.5%, WTI +6.0%, diesel +3.8%, gold -0.6%. The month column is the Fed: gold -5.9%, lumber -3.0%, the dollar +1.8%. The three-month column has not changed its verdict: Brent +31.1%, diesel +32.5%, sugar +31.0%. A hot CPI is what a quarter of this looks like when it reaches the index.

Material Breakdown

Oil & Energy

↑ a record draw, a sunk ship, and a waiver that sold the open

Brent crude 109.36 · w/w +2.5% · 3mo +31.1% WTI crude 98.39 · w/w +6.0% · 3mo +26.4% Henry Hub natgas 3.06 · w/w -3.3% · 3mo -0.4%

TL;DRBrent went to $110 on Friday for the first time since May and sold back to about $107.50 on Monday morning on a Russian diesel deal, then recovered to 109.36 by the settle. Three facts under the price: US crude stocks fell 8.6 million barrels in the week to October 9, the largest draw since February, against a consensus for 300,000; the IEA puts observed stocks 509 million barrels below pre-war and is accelerating about 100 million barrels of releases; and the week to October 14 was the war's highest attack count by UKMTO's reckoning.

Operator read: the front of the curve is paying for the strait and the storm, the back is paying for inventory. February Brent at $103 is still the planning number for anything you can defer, and the gap to the front, 6.51 today, is the price of taking delivery in the next sixty days. The Russian deal is real as a headline and small as a volume: about 2.3 million barrels of diesel in October rising to 7.6 million a month, against a Middle East product export shortfall the IEA puts at 2.8 million barrels a day. Treat it as a ceiling on the crack, not a reason to wait on crude.

Refined Products & the Crack

↓ the crack 96.62 · capped by a waiver and a release, not by supply

ULSD diesel 4.90 · w/w +3.8% · 3mo +32.5% RBOB gasoline 3.18 · w/w -3.4% · 3mo +16.7%

TL;DRThe distillate crack spent Tuesday and Wednesday above $100, then came off as two political decisions landed on the same barrel. Friday, Trump signed a waiver of the Graham Act sanctions on Russia and announced a deal with Putin for Russian diesel exports to the United States and others; Thursday, the IEA's governing board agreed to pull forward about 100 million barrels of emergency stocks, more than 20 million of them diesel. Neither adds a refinery: the IEA has Middle East product exports at 1.9 million barrels a day against 4.7 before the war and says the shortage may last into 2027. AAA's retail diesel average is $6.32 a gallon, about 20 cents off its September record.

Operator read: a crack held down by announcements can snap back on one headline, and Rubio pre-announced it: a sixty-day assessment of the Russia waiver. Keep diesel surcharges on the crack formula, not a level. If you are buying forward diesel, buy the deferred months, where the crack already prices the IEA's shortfall and not the weekend's politics. Ukraine struck the Ryazan refinery on Thursday, 340,000 barrels a day, one unit down; that is the other way this reverses.

Freight, Bunker & War Risk

↑ the hit rate is the rate · VLCC Gulf to China WS 776, off a record 841

VLCC Gulf of Oman to China WS 776 · prior week WS 841 (record) Vessels at anchor about 217 off Fujairah and Khorfakkan on Sunday UKMTO, latest period 12 attacks · 2 disabled · 1 lost

TL;DRThe container ship GFS Pride, 2,824 TEU, was hit on Tuesday and sank on Wednesday, all 21 crew evacuated. On Friday the VLCC ST3, by trade-press accounts, took a projectile about 68 nautical miles northeast of Al Jubail, inside the Gulf, and lost power to an engine-room fire; another tanker was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade from a small boat ten miles further out the same evening; a tug was hit off Khorfakkan on Sunday. The IRGC says two tankers struck mines on Saturday; the Joint Maritime Information Center has no substantiation and Central Command says the primary routes are clear.

Operator read: the attacks have moved inside the Gulf, to the Saudi anchorages, so the war-risk zone your underwriter draws is about to get bigger whatever the strait's status. Hold every war-risk and diversion clause. For anything routed via the Gulf, assume the Iranian northern lane or the escorted convoy, both of which cost days, and price the days. UKMTO says most attacked vessels do not report: the public count is a floor.

Gold & Copper

↓ gold 4,163.60, -0.6% on the week · a hot CPI, a one-day dip, a hike priced

Gold 4,163.60 · w/w -0.6% · 3mo +2.2% Copper 6.59 · w/w -2.3% · 3mo +2.5%

TL;DRSeptember CPI printed 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, core 0.3% and 2.6%, every one above consensus, with gasoline up 9.1% in a month and 34% in a year. PPI followed at 1.3% on the month. December gold settled 4,109.80 that afternoon, 20 cents under last week's floor, and was back above 4,170 by Thursday. The odds of an October 28 hike went from about 22% to 41% on the day and faded to about 15% by Monday; December is near 90%.

Operator read: gold is behaving like a hedge on the strait, not on the Fed, and it has held a $4,100 handle through a hot CPI by less than a daily range. If it is in your treasury book as a Hormuz hedge, that is the level at which it stops being one. Copper 6.59, -2.3% on the week, carried no sourced driver; the September record stands. The three-month columns on both metals still say inflation; the one-month columns say the Fed.

Steel, Aluminum & Lumber

↓ lumber -3.4% on the week · the 10-year touched 5.3%

Steel HRC 1,365.00 · w/w +7.1% · 3mo +18.3% Aluminum 3,115.25 · w/w -0.6% · 3mo -11.8% Lumber 521.00 · w/w -3.4% · 3mo -19.3%

TL;DRThe building complex traded the rate shock, not the strait: the 10-year spiked to 5.3% on CPI day and finished the week at 5.12%. Lumber -3.4% on the week, -19.3% over three months. Steel and aluminum carried no sourced driver this week.

Operator read: the financing cost on inventory is the construction-materials story, and a December hike near 90% makes it dearer. Buy this quarter's need and nothing more; lumber's three-month column has fallen since July.

Grains & Softs

↓ corn -3.4%, wheat -2.4%, soybeans -2.7% on the week · a crop market after the report

Wheat 656.00 · w/w -2.4% · 3mo -5.1% Corn 466.75 · w/w -3.4% · 3mo -1.3% Soybeans 1,253.00 · w/w -2.7% · 3mo +2.2% Cotton 80.14 · w/w -0.6% · 3mo +1.5% Coffee 313.75 · w/w +8.0% · 3mo +1.4% Sugar #11 20.59 · w/w -1.2% · 3mo +31.0% Cocoa 5,695.00 · w/w +0.3% · 3mo +0.4%

TL;DRThe grain complex kept absorbing the October 9 report that lifted the corn carryout well above expectations; no scheduled report landed. China's third-quarter GDP came in at 4.5% against 4.4% expected, the demand side of the soybean book. Softs carried no sourced driver: sugar -1.2% and cocoa +0.3% on the week, coffee +8.0%, cotton -0.6%.

Operator read: corn-indexed inputs stay a buyer's market until the November report. Energy is the cost moving in the food chain, through diesel and a CPI where food printed flat while energy rose 5.2%. Price the freight, not the grain.

The Dollar & Rates

↑ dearer money · the dollar 101.98, -0.6% on the week · December priced as a hike

US dollar index 101.98 · w/w -0.6% · 3mo +1.0% 10-year Treasury about 5.1% · 5.3% at the CPI spike October 28 hike about 15% · December hike near 90%

TL;DRWednesday's CPI did what a 34% annual gasoline increase does to a headline, and the core did not rescue it: 0.3% and 2.6%, both a tenth hot. The dollar touched an 18-month high midweek and gave some back into the weekend. One Fed official called the data discouraging, another said the Fed might need to hike more aggressively if expectations slip; the chair gave no signal. A December hike is the base case in the futures.

Operator read: price fourth-quarter working capital at 4.25% and plan the first quarter at 4.50%. The October 28 meeting is priced as a hold with a one-in-six chance of a hike; the week's only rate inputs are housing starts and the flash PMIs.

The Risk Map · What Moves This Board

The attack leg · inside the Gulf nowCRITICAL

A ship sunk, a VLCC disabled inside the Gulf, a mine claim that no third party can confirm, and an army chief saying the strait stays closed. The tells: a confirmed mine (JMIC or UKMTO, not the IRGC), an attack on a Saudi export terminal rather than a ship near one, the anchorage count off Fujairah rising past 250, and Central Command's weekly figure falling below 300. Any of those reprices the front and the crack together, which is why no three calls share a headline.

The deal leg · seven days to reopen, still on the tableHIGH

Araqchi said Sunday that Iran's proposal to reopen the strait within seven days, lift the blockade and sanctions, and end hostilities is "still on the table" and that Washington's comments are under review. The President's no-strike pledge runs to November 3. An acceptance headline takes $10 off the front, closes the Dec-Feb spread and knocks the crack; this board prices that as the band's lower bound and the spread's floor, not as a third call. The reverse tell is a seventh condition rejected in public, which is what stalled the talks a week ago.

The supply leg · releases, waivers and one expiryMEDIUM

The IEA's accelerated release, the DOE's 17-million-barrel exchange (bids Wednesday) and the Russian diesel deal all lower prices by decree and all have reversal dates: the waiver's sixty-day review, the diesel export ban Russia has in force to October 31, and the November 1 OPEC+ meeting. November WTI expires Tuesday, which puts the front WTI spread through an expiry in the first session of the window.

Binary Triggers · Next 4 Days

Six calls, each with our own probability and a pre-registered resolution source, resolving on the four settles of October 20-23. Anchored on the 14:30 ET settlement prints of Monday October 19. A call is wrong if any settle breaches its bar; registered odds are the model's figure less a fixed gap discount, rounded to five points.

IFThe first Kpler weekly crude-flow figure for the Strait of Hormuz that Reuters or Bloomberg reports for a seven-day week ending on any date from Wednesday October 21 to Sunday October 25 is between 5.0 and 12.0 million barrels a day inclusive, AND no new UKMTO, JMIC or Central Command notice dated October 20-23 announces a halt of transits, a mine strike or a mine find, AND no Kpler zero-transit day is reported for October 20-23

THENConstrained holds, neither closed nor reopened. Week fifteen of the flagship, in the form frozen since October 12. A flow above 12.0 million barrels a day grades this wrong as a reopening; below 5.0, or a verified halt, mine strike or mine find, grades it wrong as a closure. Attacks on ships are not halts; the standing August 20 JMIC advisory does not count. Pre-named swap, written now: if the W42 flagship grades unresolved at its October 20 cutoff, this call resolves instead on the IMF PortWatch daily Hormuz series: the seven-day sum of transits for October 17-23 is between 1 and 62 inclusive (62 is twice the trailing four-week maximum weekly sum of 31), read when all seven days are published, cutoff October 30 at 23:59 ET; unresolved if unpublished by then.

ODDS75% · resolves by Kpler weekly flow as reported by Reuters or Bloomberg, and UKMTO, JMIC or CENTCOM notices, cutoff Tuesday October 27 at 23:59 ET; or by IMF PortWatch under the swap, cutoff October 30

IFNo verified Hormuz halt occurs through October 23, THEN December Brent settles inside $104-114 every session

THENThe channel holds through an expiry and a review. The band sits 5% below and 4% above today's $109.36 settle, one window-sigma each side at 2.0% a day. The lower edge is where an accepted reopening lands; the upper edge is a confirmed mine. bound_sigma 1.06; registered 60% against a model 67%, the discount for a gap either way.

ODDS60% · resolves by ICE Brent (December) settles, October 20-23, conditional on call 1

IFDecember gold settles above $4,075 every session through Friday October 23

THENThe floor holds a full CPI-day move lower. Last week's floor was $35 higher and lost by 20 cents on CPI day. This one is set by rule at the settle less $87, about 0.9 window-sigma and more than Wednesday's $68 settle-to-settle drop, rounded down to five dollars: 2.1% under today's 4,163.60. No CPI falls in the window and the Fed is in blackout; the risk is a second rates day, priced as a mild downward drift. bound_sigma 0.92; registered 70% against a model 76%.

ODDS70% · resolves by COMEX (December) settles, October 23

IFNovember Henry Hub natgas settles below $3.40 every session through Friday October 23

THENShoulder season keeps the lid on, again. The board's one easy slot, declared as such: storage is building, the November contract has nine days to expiry, Friday printed 3.12 and today 3.061. The ceiling is 11% above the settle. bound_sigma 1.84; registered 90% against a model 95%.

ODDS90% · resolves by NYMEX (November) settles, October 23

IFThe distillate crack (November ULSD settle x 42, minus the December Brent settle, same day) settles below $107 every session through Friday October 23

THENThe cap holds, priced on the tape and not on the deal. Last week's $100 ceiling was set on the story that Russian diesel was sailing; the crack printed 101.64 the next day. This ceiling is $107, $10.38 above today's 96.62, about one window-sigma at $5.16 a day. The Russian deal is 2.3 million barrels this month against a shortfall measured in millions of barrels a day, so it is priced as zero drift; the Ryazan outage and Middle East product exports at 1.9 against 4.7 million barrels a day are an upward drift, and the discount is doubled for it. bound_sigma 1.01; registered 70% against a model 79%.

ODDS70% · resolves by NYMEX ULSD (November) and ICE Brent (December) settles, October 23

IFDecember minus February Brent (same-day settles) holds above $4.50 on every settle through Friday October 23

THENScarcity survives into the expiry. The spread was 5.88 on Friday and 6.51 today; December Brent expires October 30, and a tight front tends to firm into its last two weeks. The floor stays at $4.50, 2.01 below the settle, so that an accepted reopening takes this call and the band's lower edge, not a third. bound_sigma 1.21; registered 80% against a model 85%.

ODDS80% · resolves by ICE Brent December and February settles, October 23

Operator Actions · This Week

Procurement

Keep energy on the deferred curve, lock corn-indexed inputs forward, and do not buy prompt diesel on the strength of the Russian deal.

February Brent is the planning number; the front carries the strait. The Russian volume is 2.3 million barrels in October against a shortfall measured in millions a day, with a sixty-day review clause.

Logistics

Hold every war-risk and diversion clause, extend the Gulf war-risk zone in your own planning to the Saudi anchorages, and keep diesel surcharges on the crack formula.

A VLCC was hit 68 miles off Al Jubail, inside the Gulf, and UKMTO says most attacked ships do not report. The crack moved $5 in two sessions on a waiver; a formula follows it, a level does not.

Treasury

Price Q4 working capital at 4.25% and Q1 at 4.50%; treat the October 28 meeting as a hold with a one-in-six hike risk, not a coin flip.

CPI 3.7% and PPI 6.3% made December a near-certain hike; October stayed a hold once the day's panic faded.

CFO / Risk

Run two scenarios this week, not one: a confirmed mine inside the traffic lanes with the front above $115, and an accepted seven-day reopening with the front at $100 and the crack at $85.

Both are live inside the window and the board is priced so neither breaks more than two calls. If your book cannot say the same, that is this week's work.

The Week · Timeline

Tue Oct 13The container ship GFS Pride and a tanker are struck by projectiles in the strait. The crack settles 101.64, through the W42 ceiling on the first day.

Wed Oct 14CPI 0.6% on the month, 3.7% on the year; core 0.3% and 2.6%. The 10-year touches 5.3%. GFS Pride sinks; all 21 crew safe. EIA: crude stocks down 8.6 million barrels, the largest draw since February. The IEA's report puts stocks 509 million barrels below pre-war. December gold settles 4,109.80, 20 cents under the floor.

Thu Oct 15PPI 1.3% on the month. The IEA board accelerates about 100 million barrels of emergency stocks, more than 20 million of them diesel. Iran's army chief: the strait stays closed. Reuters: the Houthi campaign that hit Riyadh's airport on October 10, killing 12, and an Aramco facility is pulling executives out of Riyadh's investment conference. Ukraine hits the Ryazan refinery.

Fri Oct 16The VLCC ST3 is hit 68 nautical miles off Al Jubail and loses power; a second tanker is hit by an RPG nearby. UKMTO's weekly count: 254 transits to October 14, 42 visible. Trump signs the Russia sanctions waiver and announces the diesel deal. December Brent settles just under $110, the first print there since May; November WTI 101.41.

Sat-Sun Oct 17-18The IRGC says two tankers hit mines; JMIC finds no substantiation. A tug is hit off Khorfakkan. About 217 ships wait at Fujairah and Khorfakkan. Araqchi: the reopening proposal is still on the table.

Mon Oct 19China's third-quarter GDP 4.5%. Brent opens near $107.50 on the waiver, recovers to 109.36 at the 14:30 ET settle. The W42 price calls grade on the week's settles; the board registers on today's.

Week Ahead

Tue Oct 20November WTI expires. The W42 flagship's cutoff at 23:59 ET: it grades on the first Kpler weekly Hormuz crude-flow figure Reuters or Bloomberg report for a week ending October 14-18, or unresolved if none does. First settle of the W43 board.

Wed Oct 21The weekly US petroleum report, after an 8.6-million-barrel draw. Bids due on the DOE's 17-million-barrel exchange. Housing starts.

Thu Oct 22Gas storage at 10:30 ET. Flash PMIs. The Fed's blackout before the October 28 meeting is in force.

Fri Oct 23All priced calls resolve on the settle; the flagship on its own cutoff. Moody's reviews France.

Oct 27-28 · Oct 30-31 · Nov 1-3The Fed's October meeting and the November gas expiry. December Brent expires October 30; Russia's diesel export ban lapses October 31 unless extended. OPEC+ meets November 1; the midterms November 3.

The record stays public, misses included: 75 right, 34 wrong, two flagships open on cutoffs we set ourselves, graded the day they resolve or marked unresolved if their sources never print. Day 233. CS