Tag: weekly-briefing
All the articles with the tag "weekly-briefing".
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Week 19: UAE Quits OPEC. Brent Tags $118. Powell's Hawkish Last Stand.
Day 65 of the Hormuz crisis. The UAE walked out of OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, the biggest OPEC departure since Qatar in 2019. Brent ripped to $118.03 on Wednesday, the highest print since June 2022, before fading. The FOMC delivered a hawkish hold on an 8-4 vote, the most dissents since 1992. Powell's final meeting added a Middle East risk line to the statement and upgraded inflation language. Q1 GDP missed at 2.0%, but core PCE re-accelerated to 3.2%. SPR drained 7.1 million barrels in a week. Trump announced 'Project Freedom' Sunday: 15,000 personnel and missile destroyers committed to the strait.
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Week 18: Tit-for-Tat in the Strait. Iran Seizes Two, Trump Tells Navy to Shoot Mine-Layers
Day 58 of the Hormuz crisis. Trump extended the ceasefire Tuesday. By Wednesday the IRGC had seized the MSC Francesca and the Epaminondas. Three vessels were attacked over 48 hours. Goldman now describes the path as 'maritime trench warfare to a sloppy peace.' Oil bounced 7% but gold sold off and the dollar firmed for the first time in a month. The structural trade is taking a breath. FOMC decides Wednesday. Hold consensus 99.9%.
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Week 17: The Whipsaw Reverses. Oil Crashes $18, Then US Seizes the Touska
Day 51 of the Hormuz crisis. Pakistan pushed to restart talks. Xi Jinping phoned MBS urging ceasefire and normal passage. Oil cratered from $105 to the mid-$80s. Then Sunday night the USS Spruance seized the Iranian container ship Touska in the Gulf of Oman. Hormuz closed again. Tehran walked out. Gold back near highs, dollar below 98, and the economic data came in hot — Philly Fed +26.7 and Empire +11. The peace trade and the structural trade are saying different things.
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Week 16: From Ceasefire to Counter-Blockade in Five Days
Day 44 of the Hormuz crisis. The two-week ceasefire collapsed within hours. Islamabad talks failed after 21 hours. Trump announced a US naval counter-blockade. Oil whipsawed $15 in one week. CPI hit a 2-year high at 3.3%. The SPR is at its lowest since the 1980s.
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Week 15: Ceasefire or Escalation. Trump's Tuesday Deadline Defines Everything
Day 38 of the Hormuz blockade. A 45-day ceasefire is on the table. Trump's Tuesday deadline looms. Oil at $111, ISM Prices Paid at a 4-year high, and fuel rationing spreading globally.
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Week 14: Oil Crosses $100 as Hormuz Blockade Reshapes Global Supply
The Hormuz blockade is reshaping global supply. Oil +43%, metals at record highs, currencies shifting, and crypto falling inverse. How one conflict is moving every market.